ATOM Technical Analysis Feb 18

[ATOM is trapped in a sideways market structure but gaining bullish momentum with a short-term higher low (HL) formation. If the upper $2.7390 BOS level breaks, trend continuation; if the lower $2.2254 breaks, CHoCH risk increases.]

Market Structure Overview

ATOM’s current market structure is generally showing sideways (horizontal) consolidation, moving within a narrow range of $2.21 – $2.43. The current price is at $2.42 and exhibiting a bullish short-term structure above EMA20 ($2.14) with a 7.36% rise in the last 24 hours. However, Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and the $2.77 resistance forms a strong barrier. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3S/2R on 3D, 3S/2R on 1W. These levels stand out as critical points preserving structural integrity. Market structure analysis examines higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) or lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) patterns to determine trend direction. There is no clear HH/HL uptrend at the moment, but the HL formation at the last swing low (holding above the previous $2.2254) is creating a short-term bullish bias. RSI at 63.81 is neutral-bullish, and MACD supports momentum with a positive histogram. The structure is sideways within the range but carries bullish breakout potential.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) structure is the cornerstone of an uptrend. In ATOM, an HL formation was observed by holding above the $2.2254 swing low in the recent period – this means a higher bottom than previous lows and signals short-term bullish continuation. The price crossing above EMA20 and the 7% daily rise could push momentum toward HH. MACD’s bullish crossover and RSI at 63 levels indicate buyer dominance. If the price breaks the $2.5065 swing high, the uptrend is confirmed with a new HH formation. In this scenario, it could pave the way to $4.0842 according to structural targets (score:4, low probability but structural target).

Downtrend Risk

Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) define a bearish trend. In the sideways structure, there is LH risk: LH can form when $2.7390 and $2.5065 resistances are tested and rejected. Supertrend is bearish and LL risk increases with BTC downtrend influence. If $2.2254 support breaks (score:76/100, strong), CHoCH (change of character) is triggered and the descent to $1.2455 bearish target (score:22) begins. If RSI approaches 70, overbought divergence should be monitored, strengthening LH/LL structure.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (break of structure) refers to breakouts that invalidate the current trend. For bullish BOS, a close above $2.7390 (main resistance, score:70/100) or primarily $2.5065 (score:62/100) is required – this breaks the upper band of the sideways range and confirms HH/HL uptrend. Bearish BOS: close below $2.2254 breaks the HL structure and signals transition to LH/LL downtrend. In MTF, 1W supports (around $2.21) are also critical; 3D resistances align with $2.77. If these levels are not surpassed, sideways continues. BOS confirmation is strengthened by volume increase and clean wicks – for example, a wick-free candle above $2.5065 confirms bullish BOS.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $2.7390 (score:70/100, main resistance, previous HH level) and $2.5065 (score:62/100, short-term test point). These levels are where sellers enter; rejection increases LH risk. In a breakout, the new HH target extends to $2.77 Supertrend resistance. Swing highs overlap with fib retracements to create confluence (e.g., 0.618 fib around $2.73).

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $2.2254 (score:76/100, strong support, HL formation point) and $2.4050? No, $2.4050 is likely an intermediate low (score:73/100). These lows are bases defended by buyers; holding $2.2254 preserves HL. In a breakdown, descent to 1D/3D supports is rapid. Swing lows should be elevated to competing HHs for trend continuation.

Bitcoin Correlation

ATOM is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC at $67,387 in downtrend (24h +0.92% but overall LH/LL structure). BTC key supports: $66,555, $62,910, $60,000 – if these break, ATOM’s $2.2254 support will be tested with cascade effect. BTC resistances: $68,062, $71,206 – BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance crushes alts. ATOM’s short-term pump despite BTC, but if BTC goes below $66,555, ATOM’s sideways bullish structure breaks. Watch: BTC recovery above $68k triggers ATOM BOS. Details for ATOM Spot Analysis and ATOM Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook: Short-term HL bullish bias within sideways consolidation, but cautious due to BTC downtrend and bearish Supertrend. $2.5065+ BOS required for HH/HL uptrend; otherwise LH/LL risk. MTF strong levels (12 total) balance the structure, continuation more likely than reversal. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic – monitor BOS/CHoCH, absence of news keeps structure in focus. Expectation: $2.2254-$2.7390 range, extension in breakout direction. Risk management: Stop-loss below swing low, targets at fib extensions.