Gold (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Ascending Wedge Signals Explosive Rally as Bulls Target $5,141 Breakout

As of February 19, 2026, the gold spot price trades near $5,018 per ounce, reflecting a monthly gain of more than 4% amid easing U.S. inflation pressures and persistent geopolitical risks.

Market participants are closely watching whether this consolidation phase will evolve into a sustained breakout. The latest gold price analysis suggests that a technical structure forming on higher timeframes may support further upside if key resistance levels give way.

Technical Structure Points to $5,141 Gold Price Target

From a chart perspective, bullion is consolidating above a rising channel on the weekly timeframe. Analysts at Gold Predictors noted that the metal is “building energy above the ascending channel,” highlighting the emergence of an ascending broadening wedge. Such formations often precede stronger directional moves once resistance is cleared.

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating above its ascending channel, with an emerging ascending broadening wedge signaling potential for a stronger bullish breakout. Source: Gold Predictors via X

On the daily gold price chart, the 21-day simple moving average remains above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages, maintaining a constructive alignment. Although price action is currently hovering near the 21-day average of around $5,001, it continues to hold comfortably above the 50-day SMA, which is near $4,688, thereby preserving the broader upward bias.

A key technical inflection sits at $4,999.94, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $5,597.89 to $4,401.99. A confirmed daily close above that level would open the path toward the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05, the next major gold price resistance level and an important gold price target in the short term.

Momentum indicators remain steady rather than overheated. The daily RSI reads near 53, indicating stable buying pressure without extreme conditions. This supports the view that the market is consolidating rather than reversing.

On shorter timeframes, particularly the 30-minute chart, price action reveals a previous sharp sell-off near $4,856 followed by strong demand absorption and a V-shaped recovery. The formation of higher lows beneath resistance suggests sellers are gradually being absorbed, a classic “bullish re-acceptance” pattern that often precedes continuation.

Immediate gold price support levels are seen near $4,950 and $4,852, while resistance lies in the $5,020–$5,090 range before the broader $5,141 objective.

Gold and Interest Rates: Fed Policy, Inflation Data, and Safe-Haven Flows

The macro backdrop remains central to the current gold price outlook. Despite hawkish undertones in the January Federal Reserve meeting minutes, markets continue to price in three potential 25 basis point rate cuts this year. The Minutes showed that policymakers are “in no rush to cut interest rates,” with some open to further hikes if inflation proves sticky.

The 30-minute Gold (XAUUSD) chart highlights a clear transition from range-bound consolidation to a confirmed structural reversal. Source: DrForexPhd on TradingView

However, softer recent inflation prints have tempered rate expectations. This dynamic underscores the ongoing relationship between gold and interest rates. Lower real yields generally support non-yielding assets such as bullion.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions are reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough, and reports of potential U.S.–Iran military tensions added another layer of uncertainty. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy publicly stated he was dissatisfied with the negotiations’ outcome, underscoring fragile diplomatic conditions.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury data revealed a $44.9 billion net inflow in Treasury International Capital for December 2025, signaling continued foreign appetite for U.S. assets. This has helped the U.S. dollar remain firm, creating a balancing act in the gold vs dollar dynamic.

Upcoming U.S. macro releases, including PCE inflation, GDP figures, jobless claims, and housing data, are expected to shape the near-term gold price movement today and influence expectations around gold price and Fed policy.

Consolidation Before Breakout?

Despite short-term volatility, the broader gold market outlook remains constructive. The market appears to be transitioning from rapid swings into a more structured consolidation zone. On intraday charts, moving averages are flattening, suggesting a pause rather than a reversal.

On the 1-hour timeframe, gold’s fluctuating moving averages signal a lack of clear direction, with support near $4,950 and resistance in the $5,020–$5,050 range guiding short-term trading opportunities. Source: Gold_Traders_ on TradingView

Short-term traders are monitoring the $4,950 pivot. Stabilization above that level would reinforce bullish positioning, while a sustained break above $5,000 could accelerate buying interest.

The ascending wedge pattern on higher timeframes suggests compression rather than exhaustion. If price secures acceptance above $5,000 on a closing basis, technical projections toward $5,141 become increasingly plausible.

That said, failure to maintain support could trigger rotational movement back toward $4,858, the 38.2% retracement level. The rising 100-day SMA near $4,393 continues to anchor the medium-term trend, offering structural support if volatility intensifies.

GLD Holds Long-Term Uptrend Despite Short-Term Consolidation Pressure

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) continues to reflect gold’s broader strength, maintaining a long-term bullish structure despite recent consolidation. As of mid-February 2026, the ETF trades at around $457, having retreated from its 52-week high of approximately $509.70. Over the past year, GLD has posted strong gains, supported by concerns about inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained demand for safe-haven assets. While the broader trend remains upward, recent sessions show increased volatility and signs of short-term corrective pressure.

$GLD was trading at around $457.47, down 0.20% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: TradingView

Technically, GLD remains above its key longer-term moving averages, including the 200-day SMA, reinforcing the broader bullish bias. Shorter-term moving averages still favor buyers, although price action hovering below the 21-day average signals limited immediate upside momentum. Oscillators such as the RSI sit in neutral territory, cooling off from previously overbought levels, while the MACD remains positive but shows slowing momentum. Overall, indicators lean neutral-to-bullish, suggesting the pullback may be corrective rather than a full trend reversal.

Key support lies in the $455–$460 zone, followed by stronger structural support between $430 and $445. On the upside, resistance is seen around $466–$475, with a break above that range potentially reopening the path toward $500 and beyond. A sustained move below $445, however, could accelerate downside pressure. For now, the technical outlook favors cautious optimism, with long-term buyers maintaining control while short-term traders monitor critical breakout or breakdown levels.

Gold Price Forecast: Measured Optimism Into 2026

Looking ahead, the short-term gold price forecast hinges on confirmation above $5,000. A breakout backed by volume and improving momentum could validate the wedge structure and shift the focus to higher retracement levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) could dip to the $4,934 pivot before rebounding toward $5,090 resistance, with support at $4,852. Source: TradingView

From a longer-term perspective, sustained safe-haven demand, evolving rate expectations, and structural buying trends, including central bank reserve accumulation, remain key drivers in the gold macro outlook. While short-term pullbacks are possible, the broader trend structure still leans upward.

For now, traders are asking a familiar question: Where is the gold price heading next? The answer may depend less on speculation and more on whether technical resistance at $5,141 yields to persistent demand.

As the market navigates inflation data, Fed communication, and geopolitical headlines, the metal’s ability to hold above $5,000 will likely define the next chapter in the ongoing gold price prediction 2026 narrative.