Analysis: The Fed's room for interest rate cuts this year may be overestimated; asset management giants are shorting US Treasuries against the trend.
PANews reported on February 20th that, according to Jinshi, portfolio managers from Invesco Ltd. and Carmignac are shorting US Treasuries. They stated that the bond market's widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice more this year runs counter to the resilience of the US economy.
U.S. Treasuries surged, driven by safe-haven demand triggered by stock market volatility and last week's modest January inflation data, pushing yields near multi-month lows. This bullish sentiment suggests many investors expect easing price pressures, once signs of weakness emerge in the labor market, to provide the Federal Reserve with room for significant rate cuts later this year. However, Invesco, Kaminiak, and BNP Paribas SA disagree. In their view, the U.S. economy is too strong to support expectations of further substantial easing by the Fed.
On the one hand, January job growth exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, businesses are investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Furthermore, the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were cautious about cutting interest rates, with "several" officials stating that a rate hike might be necessary if inflation persists above the 2% target. TS Lombard's macro strategists told clients this week to bet on fewer rate cuts in the second half of 2026. For Rob Waldner, chief fixed income strategist at Invesco, the baseline scenario is one rate cut this year. However, he stated that given the recent strong economic data, "the possibility of no rate cuts is increasing." This firm, which manages over $2.2 trillion in assets, is reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to expectations of improved economic growth and inflation exceeding target.
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