Bitcoin holds as FOMC minutes flag rate-hike scenario

Key Takeaways:

• Fed minutes keep rate hikes possible if inflation remains above 2%.
• Policymakers mostly held 3.50%-3.75% range; a couple wanted quarter-point cut.
• Two-sided risk approach: patience on cuts, readiness to hike if pressures re-accelerate.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 27–28, 2026 meeting signaled that several officials would consider raising rates if inflation stays above the 2% goal, as reported by TheStreet. The document was published on Feb. 18, 2026, according to Incrypted.com.

The record shows almost all policymakers favored holding the target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while “a couple” preferred a quarter‑point cut, as reported by InvestingLive. The discussion reflected two‑sided risk management: patience on cuts, with hikes still on the table should price pressures re‑accelerate.

Two‑sided guidance matters because it conditions 2026 decisions on realized inflation rather than on a pre‑set glidepath. If disinflation resumes convincingly, cuts remain possible; if inflation proves sticky, officials have kept room to tighten.

Such conditionality may temper market expectations for swift easing and underscores the committee’s focus on anchoring expectations. It also highlights the internal split between members prioritizing progress already made and those wary of stopping short.

Public comments have reinforced that a hike is not the base case but remains a contingency if inflation stalls. As reported by MarketWatch, Chair Jerome Powell said, “a rate hike isn’t anybody’s base case” while keeping the option available should inflation fail to cool.

Practically, this approach implies meeting‑by‑meeting decisions guided by incoming inflation and labor data, with an emphasis on preventing any drift in inflation expectations. The minutes’ language also points to vigilance on services and upstream cost pressures that could slow progress toward target.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $67,297 with estimated volatility around 11.75% and a 14‑day RSI near 35.72, based on market metrics used for this report. Broader crypto sentiment is described as bearish, with 12 of the past 30 sessions closing higher.

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