Why Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Might Break the Old Cycle

Analyst James Check argues that adoption trends and market structure, not the four-year reward cuts, dictate the cryptocurrency’s major cycles.

According to Check, Bitcoin has so far moved through three distinct phases: an “adoption cycle” between 2011 and 2018 powered by early retail investors, an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022 defined by leverage and boom-bust speculation, and the ongoing “maturity cycle,” which began after the 2022 bear market and is now being shaped by institutional involvement. He believes the 2017 peak and 2022 low were pivotal turning points that mark transitions between these phases.

A Split in Market Views

Check’s perspective diverges from the widely accepted halving cycle theory, which links market peaks to the supply shock created by reduced mining rewards. By this measure, Bitcoin’s prior rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and the expected continuation into 2025, fit neatly into the four-year model.

Other voices in the market have echoed Check’s skepticism. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan suggested the four-year pattern has run its course, noting that the next true test will be Bitcoin’s performance in 2026. Popular analyst TechDev has also argued that liquidity cycles explain Bitcoin’s swings more accurately than halving dates.

READ MORE:

Trump Family Doubles Down on Crypto With Massive Polymarket Investment

Signs of a Late-Stage Market

Glassnode, however, maintains that Bitcoin remains broadly aligned with its traditional cycle, pointing to recent profit-taking and mounting selling pressure as hallmarks of a late-stage bull phase. Position trader Bob Loukas added that cycles are inevitable, even if their timing shifts: “We pump until it bursts, then start again.”

For Check, Bitcoin is evolving into a more stable, institutionally backed asset—one that may eventually be seen as a long-term store of value alongside gold. If that view holds true, the old four-year playbook may no longer define the market’s rhythm.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The post Why Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Might Break the Old Cycle appeared first on Coindoo.