Fed’s John Williams Signals Openness to Rate Cut Ahead of September FOMC
The president of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, is the latest Fed official to comment on the state of the economy and the possibility of a Fed rate cut ahead of the September FOMC meeting. He indicated that he might be open to a cut but warned that they have to figure out what is going on with the economy.
John Williams Comments On Fed Rate Cut
During a CNBC interview, the New York Fed president stated that they need to lower interest rates if inflation continues to cool and the economy remains balanced. This came as he noted that the current level of rates is “modestly restrictive,” indicating that there is room to reduce interest rates and still maintain a restrictive stance going forward.
However, the New York Fed president remarked that incoming data will drive decisions as they assess the current state of inflation and the labor market, in an effort to achieve a balance of risks. His comment follows that of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who signalled a Fed rate cut at the Jackson Hole conference last week.
Powell had stated that the downside risks to employment were rising and that the shifting balance of risks may warrant them adjusting their policy stance. Williams appears to hold a different opinion, as he reiterated his belief that the labor market remains strong.
The Fed president explained that indicators such as the unemployment rate, which remains at 4.2%, show that the labor market isn’t weakening as some argue. He suggested that market participants cannot base such an assumption solely on the nonfarm payrolls, which were way below expectations last month.
It is worth mentioning that Williams is a voting member of the FOMC. As such, he could influence whether a Fed rate cut happens at the September meeting or not. Since Powell’s speech, the odds of a rate cut have been on the rise again. Experts, such as Morgan Stanley, also predict that a cut will occur next month.
Market Pricing In A September Cut
CME FedWatch data shows that market participants are pricing in a September Fed rate cut. There is currently an 88.2% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) cut next month.
Source: CME FedWatch
U.S. President Donald Trump is also pushing for a rate cut and is now seeking to gain a majority of the Fed Board through the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. However, Cook has said that she will challenge the removal as the president has no legal basis to fire her.
Trump has already nominated Stephen Miran to the Fed Board to replace Adriana Kugler. The White House is reportedly seeking to fast-track his confirmation so that he can vote at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled to take place between September 16 and 17.
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