Bitcoin discounts quantum risk amid PQC planning

Answer: Quantum risk is driving Bitcoin undervaluation today

Bitcoin’s current discount appears linked to quantum-computing risk being priced today. Investors weighing cryptographically relevant quantum computers are treating potential key-recovery threats as a valuation drag rather than a tail risk.

This discount operates through confidence, compliance, and coordination channels. Markets tend to pre-empt security migrations that require governance changes and wallet moves, embedding uncertainty into price and allocation models.

What cryptographically relevant quantum computers mean for Bitcoin

Cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) would threaten Bitcoin signatures by accelerating solutions to the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem underlying ECDSA. Hash-based protections for block mining remain distinct and are not the proximate concern.

Risk concentrates where public keys are revealed or reused, such as legacy pay-to-public-key outputs and addresses that repeatedly sign. UTXOs with unrevealed public keys are less exposed until they are spent.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is near 67,930 dollars with very high 11.75 percent volatility and bearish sentiment. Technical context shows an RSI around 35.72 and price below the 50- and 200-day SMAs of about 82,958 and 99,868.

Some developers caution against over-assigning causality to quantum narratives in short-term swings. “If quantum risk were the main driver, Ether would be soaring,” said Matt Corallo, a Bitcoin developer, as reported by Cointelegraph.

Disagreement over drivers is itself a pricing signal. Uncertainty widens discount rates, can slow institutional allocations, and keeps risk premia elevated until a credible mitigation pathway is visible.

How Bitcoin could mitigate quantum risk

Institutional and expert views: World Federation of Exchanges, Jefferies, Vitalik Buterin

according to the World Federation of Exchanges, quantum computing poses an emerging high-impact risk to market integrity, with many members placing CRQC arrival five to ten-plus years out. Some exchanges have begun integrating quantum-safe encryption criteria into vendor assessments.

Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from a model portfolio, citing CRQC concerns and a weakened security thesis, as reported by Business Insider. This kind of reallocation highlights how long-horizon technical risks can shape near-term positioning. Vitalik Buterin has estimated roughly a 20 percent chance that quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography could arrive before 2030, as reported by CCN.

Post-quantum cryptography options, address exposure, and migration signals

NIST has approved post-quantum cryptography standards that could inform a Bitcoin upgrade path, though implementing them would require careful engineering and consensus. Migration would likely prioritize protecting keys before broad activation.

Address exposure would be triaged by encouraging moves from public-key-revealed outputs and by reducing key reuse. Markets would likely watch for BIPs, client reference implementations, exchange risk frameworks, and address-migration activity as readiness signals.

FAQ about Bitcoin undervaluation

Can quantum computers break Bitcoin’s ECDSA, and which wallets or addresses are most vulnerable?

Not yet. The risk centers on public-key exposure; legacy or reused addresses are most vulnerable. Unrevealed public keys are safer until spent, when signatures disclose them.

Is quantum risk already priced into Bitcoin, could it be undervalued because institutions are discounting future security threats?

Some institutions are discounting long-horizon quantum risk today, which can suppress allocations and valuations. Others dispute near-term impact, leaving uncertainty that sustains a market-wide risk premium.