US crypto bill and xrp price implications as Garlinghouse sees 90% chance of Clarity Act by April

Institutional investors are watching Washington closely as the US debates new rules that could reshape the xrp price and the broader digital asset market.

Garlinghouse sees 90% chance for US Clarity Act by April

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, now assigns a 90% probability that the US CLARITY Act will pass by the end of April. He argues that, if approved, the bill would finally end years of crypto regulatory gray zone for US-based firms and global participants.

Moreover, Garlinghouse points to growing momentum in Washington after months of procedural delays in the Senate. Lawmakers are working toward a March 1 negotiation deadline set by the White House, particularly focused on stablecoin rules and market structure provisions.

If the legislation clears that deadline and advances, it would give major institutions the clear legal definitions they have waited for before entering spot markets at scale. That said, prediction markets still see some risk that negotiations could slip beyond April even if the overall direction looks constructive.

Key elements driving the US Clarity Act

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, listed as H.R. 3633, has reached a critical turning point. The House of Representatives already passed the bill in July 2025 with a strong 294 to 134 bipartisan vote, underscoring broad political support for clearer digital asset rules.

However, progress stalled in the Senate amid jurisdictional fights over which agency should control different parts of the market. That deadlock centered on dividing authority between the CFTC and the SEC, particularly around spot markets and token classification.

Now the picture looks different, according to Garlinghouse. He says fresh meetings among banking leaders, crypto executives, and key committee members have helped break the logjam. Moreover, industry participants argue that the sector can no longer run on enforcement actions alone and urgently needs predictable rules.

Regulators appear to be adjusting as well. After the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced a related draft on January 29, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the SEC and CFTC are coordinating more closely through an initiative known as Project Cryptod. That cooperation aims to define clearer lanes for commodities and securities oversight.

Breaking down the odds and the stablecoin fight

Garlinghouse’s 90% probability is more optimistic than current prediction markets, which price the bill’s passage at around 78% by year end. Moreover, an April finish would be faster than many analysts expect, yet he frames it as a necessary step to keep US markets competitive.

The main sticking point remains stablecoins. Lawmakers are debating whether platforms should be allowed to offer yield-style incentives on stablecoin balances, a topic that already slowed Senate Banking Committee discussions earlier this year. However, negotiators appear determined to close these gaps before the March 1 target.

While Washington argues about design details, Ripple is not standing still. Since 2023, the company has deployed $3B into acquisitions aimed at strengthening custody, treasury infrastructure, and cross-border payment rails. That investment is designed to position the firm for a more regulated, institutionally driven market.

What the Clarity Act could mean for xrp price action

For XRP traders, many see federal legislation as the final box to tick before a potential new phase of adoption. The company already secured a high-profile court ruling that XRP is not a security, which eased immediate legal pressure. However, a federal statute would lock that status in and reduce future uncertainty.

This kind of clarity could open the door for institutional participation at scale and may influence the xrp price in the medium term. Moreover, Garlinghouse notes that corporate treasurers are actively examining use cases like stablecoins and cross border payments, but they want explicit federal guardrails before deploying serious capital.

If April delivers on the legislative timeline, markets could see a rapid rotation back into large-cap tokens with clear utility and defined regulatory treatment. That said, the outcome of the ongoing stablecoin regulation debate and final oversight structure for the CFTC and SEC will be critical for long-term institutional crypto adoption.

In summary, a successful US crypto bill would reduce regulatory ambiguity, solidify XRP’s legal footing, and potentially catalyze deeper institutional flows, with April emerging as a pivotal month to watch.