Grail (GRAL) Stock: Why the Biotech Crashed 50% Overnight

TLDR

• Grail (GRAL) stock crashed ~50% after its NHS-Galleri trial failed to meet its primary endpoint.
• The trial of 142,000+ people did not show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancers.
• A subgroup of 12 deadly cancers showed Stage IV diagnoses fall more than 20% in years two and three.
• Q4 loss came in narrower than expected at $2.44 per share; revenue of $43.6 million met estimates.
• Grail has an active FDA premarket approval application, with first-year NHS trial data included.

Grail (GRAL) stock lost nearly half its value in after-hours trading Thursday after its flagship NHS-Galleri cancer screening trial missed its primary endpoint.

GRAIL, Inc., GRAL

Shares fell 48% to $52.25 after the close, then held around 47% lower at $53.33 in Friday premarket trading. The drop wiped out a large chunk of a 200%-plus rally the stock had built over the prior six months.

The NHS-Galleri trial followed more than 142,000 people in England aged 50 to 77. The primary goal was a statistically significant reduction in Stage III and IV cancer diagnoses. That target was not reached.

Where the Trial Did Show Promise

The full data picture is not entirely negative.

In a pre-specified group of 12 deadly cancers, there was a favorable trend toward fewer late-stage diagnoses. Stage IV cases in that group fell by more than 20% in both the second and third screening rounds.

Adding Galleri to standard care also reduced cancers detected through emergency presentation — the late-stage diagnoses linked to higher mortality and greater healthcare costs.

FDA Filing and What Comes Next

Grail filed a premarket approval application with the FDA in January. First-year NHS trial data was included in that submission, making the outcome of that review more closely watched now.

Additional analyses are underway, and Grail said detailed results will be submitted for presentation at the ASCO 2026 Annual Meeting.

On the earnings front, Grail posted a Q4 loss of $2.44 per share, narrower than Wall Street expected. Revenue of $43.6 million came in line with estimates. The numbers were largely overshadowed by the trial data.

Grail also said it is expanding its field-based sales and medical teams to support demand for the Galleri test.

In premarket trading Friday, GRAL was down approximately 47% to $53.33.

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