The Clarity Act – A Potential ETH Super-Cycle Trigger as Prediction Markets Signal 90% Approval Odds

The crypto market is experiencing some serious sentiment shifts as legislators gain traction. After the Genius Act resulted in significant stablecoin inflows and boosted liquidity into 2025, focus has now shifted to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. According to Polymarket, there’s a 90% chance it’ll be passed before April 2026. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has said this could bolster Ethereum massively and trigger broader upside across the crypto market.

The “Genius Act” Precedent and Stablecoin Velocity

To understand the fuss over the Clarity Act, it helps to use the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) as a guidepost. The rollout of the Genius Act served as a proof-of-concept of what certainty can do to invite institutional participation, and close on the heels of that came a steady and accelerated influx of stablecoins, the infrastructure’s “dry powder.”

When velocity of stablecoins picks up, it indicates the movement from a holding pattern to deployment. This fresh liquidity provided the fuel for large assets like Bitcoin and Ether to embark on a sustained bullish trend. The Clarity Act is expected to build on that inertia by providing even more granular legal frameworks for DeFi and asset tokenization – not just applicable to secret stablecoin reserves, but across the board.

Prediction Markets and the 90% Confidence Interval

The rapid rise in Polymarket odds to a 90% confidence level shows “smart money” is getting behind the trend here. Unlike polling, the prediction market forces people to put capital at risk to express belief, which historically makes it a very accurate leading indicator of political and legislative outcomes.

As the clock ticks down to the anticipated signing date of April 3, 2026, the market is already pricing the expected ease of regulations. For Ethereum, the main layer for smart contracts and institutional DeFi apps, the Clarity Act is a removal of the “regulatory overhang” that has held down its price action vs the rest of the sectors. If this passes, it could lead to more spot ETF variants and institutional staking products.

Why Ethereum is the Primary Beneficiary

While the entire market wins, Ethereum would be the one most benefited by the passing of the Clarity Act. The majority of legislative challenges today hinge on the classification of tokens, and stake reward legality. Clarity Act seeks to address these specific points, likely entrenching ETH as a “digital commodity”, while clarifying SEC, CFTC roles.

As Michaël van de Poppe succinctly states, the link between legislation and ETH price action is becoming impossible to ignore.

If the odds of 90% are accurate, we find ourselves right in the midst of the “buy the rumor” stage. Once the ink dries, the papers will transition into the “buy the news” phase, supported by real institutional buy-side pressure rather than mere retail speculation.

To keep ahead of these changes, many are now turning to sophisticated tools, e.g. folks are pitching into the regulatory outlook for 2026.

Conclusion

The crypto market is slowly moving out of the “Wild West” and into a period of institutional maturity. The Clarity Act is the last piece in the puzzle for big players waiting on the sidelines. With a 90% chance of passing by April 2026, the time to get in early will be gone. If it does pass, then the long Ethereum “no brainer” might be followed up by one of the biggest expansions in the history of crypto.