OpenAI Cuts 2030 Compute Spend to $600B

Key Insights:

• OpenAI reduced the long-term compute target.
• Revenue forecast shaped revised expansion plan.
• Nvidia weighed a multibillion-dollar equity investment.

OpenAI told investors it planned to spend about $600 billion on total compute by 2030, replacing an earlier $1.4 trillion infrastructure ambition. The revised target surfaced this week as U.S. media reported concerns that expansion goals outpaced projected revenue. The company aligned the new figure with a clearer timeline and updated financial outlook.

CNBC reporting framed the shift around OpenAI’s long-term revenue expectations and funding structure. The OpenAI reset reflected tighter capital discipline as markets questioned returns on large-scale compute buildouts. The focus keyword OpenAI remained central as investors assessed whether projected growth could justify sustained infrastructure spending.

Market Reaction to Funding and Spend Reset

CNBC sources said OpenAI projected more than $280 billion in total revenue by 2030, with consumer and enterprise contributing nearly equally. That forecast tied directly to the revised compute budget and replaced broader infrastructure language used months earlier. Investors viewed the recalibration as an attempt to link capital expenditures to measurable income streams.

Source: X

The same reporting outlined a funding round that could exceed $100 billion, with strategic investors supplying roughly 90% of the capital. Discussions placed Nvidia in talks to invest up to $30 billion in the round. People familiar with the matter said the transaction could value OpenAI at a $730 billion pre-money valuation.

Those figures contrasted with a September framework between Nvidia and OpenAI that referenced a $100 billion infrastructure agreement. Under that structure, Nvidia planned staged deployments as supercomputing facilities came online. The first $10 billion commitment was expected after completion of a gigawatt-scale site. The newer equity discussion did not follow that milestone-based format.

Revenue and Cash Burn Under Scrutiny

People familiar with internal figures said OpenAI generated $13.1 billion in revenue in 2025, exceeding a prior $10 billion target. The same sources said the company burned $8 billion during the year, below its earlier $9 billion spending projection. Those numbers provided investors with clearer visibility into cost discipline and operating leverage.

OpenAI began in 2015 as a nonprofit research lab and later commercialized its technology. The launch of ChatGPT in 2022 pushed the company into mainstream adoption. Individuals with knowledge of internal data said ChatGPT now supported more than 900 million weekly active users, up from 800 million in October. The coding product Codex surpassed 1.5 million weekly active users during the same period.

Management declared a “code red” in December to sharpen product focus amid competitive pressure. Sources said ChatGPT experienced a growth slowdown in the fall before returning to record highs in weekly and daily activity. That rebound formed part of the rationale behind tying infrastructure expansion to sustained user engagement.

Builder Strategy and Capital Discipline

OpenAI announced multiple multibillion-dollar infrastructure deals in the second half of last year, partnering with chipmakers and cloud providers. Those agreements expanded supercomputing capacity and supported model training at scale. The earlier $1.4 trillion figure reflected cumulative commitments and aspirational targets rather than fixed deployment schedules.

The recalibrated compute plan suggested a shift from headline figures toward phased execution. Strategic investors such as SoftBank and Amazon reportedly participated in the broader funding round discussions. Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, told Jim Cramer there was “no question” the chipmaker would invest in OpenAI’s next funding round, reinforcing the partnership narrative.

In its November quarterly filing, Nvidia stated there was no assurance of definitive agreements related to the OpenAI opportunity. Sam Altman responded on X, saying OpenAI valued its collaboration with Nvidia and questioned speculation around the investment structure. That exchange illustrated how market expectations had begun to influence messaging from both companies.

The OpenAI funding and spending reset emerged as investors scrutinized artificial intelligence capital intensity. NVIDIA is prepared to release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, with attention focused on whether demand justifies sustained compute expansion. Broader software equities faced pressure this year as investors weighed the impact of automation on legacy revenue models.

OpenAI’s updated compute target set a defined horizon through 2030. Markets will monitor progress toward that revenue projection and the final terms of the ongoing funding round.

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