Bitcoin Mirrors Late-2022 Bottom Structure, Analysis Firm Signals Accumulation Zone

Bitcoin’s current market structure resembles the late-stage bear market environment seen in late 2022, according to K33 analyst Vetle Lunde.

While volatility and sentiment remain weak, the setup may represent an accumulation phase for long-term investors.

A Familiar Bear Market Pattern

Lunde argues that recent price action mirrors conditions that marked the final stretch of the previous bear cycle. Trading activity and derivatives data suggest that much of the speculative excess has already been flushed from the market.

Funding rates, open interest resets, and reduced leveraged positioning point to a cooling of overheated conditions. This type of broad reset historically occurs near later stages of prolonged downturns rather than at the beginning of fresh sell-offs.

Sentiment at Extreme Fear

Sentiment indicators reinforce that interpretation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped into extreme fear territory, reflecting widespread caution among market participants.

Periods of extreme fear often coincide with capitulation phases, where weak hands exit positions and volatility compresses. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it has historically aligned with medium- to long-term opportunity zones.

Rangebound Outlook Ahead

Despite the constructive longer-term signal, Lunde cautions that Bitcoin may remain rangebound between $60,000 and $75,000 for an extended period. Such consolidation could frustrate short-term traders while gradually rebuilding market structure.

For long-term investors, however, this environment may resemble a patience-testing accumulation zone rather than a fresh breakdown phase.

The comparison to late 2022 does not imply immediate upside, but it suggests that much of the excess leverage and speculative froth has already been removed. In previous cycles, similar structural conditions laid the groundwork for eventual recovery, even if the market required time to stabilize before regaining upward momentum.

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