The market looked calm on price. However, dominance charts hinted at stress building underneath.
USDT Dominance climbed toward a four-year resistance level. At the same time, BTC Dominance rolled over after forming a rising wedge.
Altseason 1.0 unfolded in 2017. Altseason 2.0 followed in 2020–2021. As we progress into 2026, traders question whether 3.0 is taking shape. What does the data actually show?
USDT.D met the ceiling
USDT Dominance reached 9%, the same resistance that marked cycle turning points in June and November 2022. The weekly chart printed a sharp upper wick, confirming rejection rather than continuation.
Source: ParaboliXBT on X
RSI climbed near 78, clearly overbought on the weekly timeframe. Historically, such readings at multi-year resistance did not sustain.
Therefore, the rejection carried structural significance.
In particular, the previous 9% rejections preceded strong moves back into risk assets. Stablecoin demand appeared stretched. This suggested capital was crowding into safety too late.
BTC.D wedge broke, but needs follow-through
BTC Dominance formed a rising wedge on the weekly chart. Price then broke below the wedge’s lower trendline.
Source: TradingView
The latest candle closed near 58.99%. That marked a pause after the wedge’s topping structure.
Momentum indicators also softened. MACD lines curled down, with the blue line under the signal.
RSI cooled too. The panel showed RSI near 61.03, with its average near 53.05.
By contrast, a quick reclaim of wedge support would weaken the bearish read. That would also delay rotation narratives.
This kept the dominance setup on a knife-edge.
Sentiment stayed fragile
Sentiment hit extreme fear levels in February, matching the panic during the COVID crash and the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin [BTC] fell as much as 51% from its October 2025 peak and now trades roughly 46% below that high, reflecting broad market stress.
Source: X
Historically, extreme fear has surfaced near major opportunity zones rather than lasting market tops. Therefore, the emotional capitulation aligned with weakness already visible across dominance charts.
Panic selling intensified as confidence faded across the broader crypto market. That environment often marked the final wave of sellers before a meaningful shift unfolded.
Altseason checklist for 2026
For an altcoin rotation to build, two things usually need to hold.
First, USDT Dominance must keep slipping from resistance. Second, BTC Dominance must stay heavy after the wedge break.
If both weaken together, liquidity may rotate into higher beta names. If either rebounds, the setup may reset.
That kept “altseason 3.0” as a live thesis, not a done deal.
Final Summary
- USDT Dominance rejected near 7.96% resistance with RSI at 78.75, signaling stretched defensive positioning that may unwind if follow-through selling appears.
- BTC Dominance broke a rising wedge and hovered near 58.99%; sustained weakness in both dominance charts could open room for altcoin outperformance.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/is-altcoin-season-beginning-btc-dominance-breakdown-hint-at/
