Bitcoin rebounds after $100B tariff whiplash — but $60k options price target hints at bigger risk

Bitcoin's weekend selloff led to about $100 billion in crypto market value losses during the reporting period and was triggered by a sudden burst of tariff policy uncertainty.

Over the last 24 hours, BTC price had slipped below $65,000, pulling the broader crypto market down with it. The top digital asset had recovered above $66,000 as of press time, according to CryptoSlate's data.

Notably, liquidations amplified the move. CoinGlass data showed that more than $500 million in crypto positions were wiped out during the swing, with the largest single liquidation reported on HTX’s BTC-USDT pair at about $61.51 million.

These losses represent the kind of forced unwind that can turn a macro headline into a fast, self-reinforcing move in crypto.

As a result, the crypto market sentiment also cracked. According to Alphractal's data, the crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 5, labeled “Extreme Fear,” a level not seen since 2019.

Whether traders treat that as a contrarian signal or a warning sign, it fit the tape as investors were de-risking first and asking questions later.

A court ruling set off a chain reaction, then the policy path changed again

The immediate trigger of this market rout was political and legal.

On Feb. 20, the US Supreme Court struck down a broad swath of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Reuters later reported that US Customs and Border Protection said it would halt collection of those IEEPA tariffs at 12:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, Feb. 24, more than three days after the ruling, while also providing no immediate guidance on refunds.

That alone would have been enough to create confusion. Instead, the White House moved quickly to replace the struck-down tariffs with a new framework.

On Feb. 20, President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and imposed a 10% ad valorem temporary import surcharge for 150 days, effective Feb. 24. He later revised the numbers to 15%.

He wrote on Truth Social:

That sequence matters for crypto because the issue was not just the tariff level. It was the pace and unpredictability of the changes.

Markets had to process a court decision, a delayed agency implementation, a new executive workaround, and then a higher rate, all in the same news cycle.

For a market that trades around the clock and uses leverage heavily, that is a volatility event.

The real macro transmission was uncertainty, not just tariffs

The crypto market selloff occurred in a macro environment already fragile.

The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index on FRED printed 706.97 for Feb. 19, a sharp jump that captured how quickly policy noise had become a tradable macro factor.

The separate FRED categorical Trade Policy Uncertainty index was already elevated at 3,027.14433 in December 2025.

In other words, crypto was not hit from a calm baseline. It was hit in an environment that was already primed for disorderly repricing.

There is also a second layer to the shock, the fiscal and balance-sheet overhang created by the court decision.

Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that reversing the IEEPA tariffs could generate up to $175 billion in refunds.

It also said IEEPA receipts had been running at about $500 million per day under the prevailing tariff schedule.

Those numbers are large enough to affect Treasury cash flow assumptions, importer balance sheets, and, by extension, the risk premium investors demand in leveraged or cyclical assets.

That is a direct channel into crypto. When macro uncertainty rises, investors cut leverage, reduce optional risk, and move toward liquidity.

Crypto feels that quickly because it is often the first market where positioning is light enough to trim and liquid enough to exit.

Meanwhile, the tariff story also does not automatically translate into a clean inflation unwind.

US banking giant Goldman Sachs reportedly advised consumers not to expect prices to fall quickly even after tariffs are lifted, because companies tend to raise prices faster than they cut them.

Goldman estimated tariff passthrough had lifted core PCE by about 0.7% through January, with only about 0.1% additional impact expected for the rest of 2026.

That reinforces the idea that the dominant market variables here are uncertainty and margin pressure, not a fresh inflation surge in itself.

Cross-asset signals lined up with that interpretation. Reporting on the tariff reversal and replacement described the dollar weakening and gold rising while BTC fell.

This is a familiar pattern when investors move toward traditional defensive assets and treat crypto as a risk vehicle rather than a safe haven.

Trade policy continuity, not clarity, kept risk appetite under pressure

If the Supreme Court ruling was supposed to calm markets, the follow-through did the opposite.

Reuters reported that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said countries with existing trade deals were not moving to withdraw and that the administration would maintain policy continuity, while also rebuilding its trade strategy through other legal tools, including Section 301 and Section 232.

He also said Trump raised the temporary tariff to 15% because of the “urgency of the situation.”

That posture helped preserve tariff policy, but it did not reduce uncertainty.

The European Commission responded by demanding “full clarity” from Washington and insisting that “a deal is a deal,” after Trump moved from the court setback to a temporary 10% tariff and then to 15% within a day.

Reuters also noted that the EU’s comparative advantage appears to have narrowed because countries without a deal may now face the same 15% headline rate.

For markets, that is the problem in one frame. Policy continuity exists, but policy clarity does not.

And when clarity is missing, capital tends to shorten duration and reduce risk. That is what crypto traded like over the weekend.

Bitcoin is now back at the levels where positioning can accelerate the next move

Inside crypto, the macro shock hit a market that was already technically sensitive.

According to CryptoSlate data, $65,000 was already a key support area for the top crypto, with a break below potentially accelerating the decline towards $60,000. However, a recovery back could help shift the tone and push the flagship asset above $70,000.

Meanwhile, the market had also seen an increase in options hedging and downside protection clustered around $60,000, which can make that level more important if spot weakens again.

That setup explains why the weekend move felt larger than the headline alone. Tariff uncertainty hit macro sentiment, forcing liquidations to accelerate the drop, and the market landed near levels where options positioning can start to shape short-term price action.

So, the next phase will likely depend less on one more tariff headline and more on whether the policy path becomes easier to map over the next 150 days.

A grinding base case is possible, with a temporary surcharge in place, recurring legal and administrative noise, and crypto stuck in a wide, volatile range. A relief rally is also possible if refund guidance improves and the market begins to believe there are real boundaries around the tariff regime.

However, the risk scenario is still the one macro traders will watch most closely, a shift from temporary surcharge politics into a broader, longer trade conflict that deepens risk-off positioning across assets.

For crypto, the signal to watch is not one green candle. It is whether policy volatility remains elevated and whether investors continue treating digital assets as the first to cut when macro noise rises.

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