Visa (V) Stock Falls 4.5% After AI Disruption Research Targets Card Fees

TLDR

• A Citrini Research Substack post painted a hypothetical 2028 scenario where AI agents route around card networks, putting Visa’s fees at risk.
• Visa dropped 4.5% on Monday, closing at $306.52, dragging Mastercard and American Express down with it.
• Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express tumbled 7.2% in the same session.
• Visa nudged up 0.2% in early premarket Tuesday to $307.09, recovering a fraction of the loss.
• A pending $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants still awaits a judge’s approval, adding a separate layer of pressure.

Visa Inc. fell sharply on Monday after a research note warned that artificial intelligence could one day reroute transactions away from traditional card networks.

Visa Inc., V

The selloff wiped roughly 4.5% off Visa’s price in a single session, closing at $306.52. The stock had opened at $319.04 and hit a low of $304.71 before settling near the bottom.

The catalyst was a Substack post by independent firm Citrini Research, published Sunday. The piece framed itself as “a scenario, not a prediction” — a hypothetical financial digest dated June 30, 2028.

In that fictional future, U.S. unemployment had climbed above 10% and the S&P 500 had fallen 38% from a peak. The driver, per Citrini: AI displacing white-collar workers at scale.

Citrini specifically named Visa as a vulnerable company. The argument was that AI agents acting on behalf of consumers could seek out cheaper payment routes, putting Visa’s 2%-3% network and processing fees in the crosshairs.

Stablecoins were floated as a potential alternative payment rail — one that could sidestep the traditional card network entirely.

It’s worth being precise here: Visa doesn’t collect interchange fees directly. That money goes to card-issuing banks. Visa earns from network and processing fees, which depend on keeping card volumes high and cross-border flows intact.

The selling wasn’t limited to Visa. Mastercard dropped 5.7%, and American Express fell 7.2% in the same session. Visa and American Express were among the hardest-hit names on the Dow, according to MarketWatch data.

AI Concerns Hit Payment Stocks Broadly

The reaction across payment names reflected broader anxiety about any business model that functions like a “toll booth” — collecting a fee on every transaction.

Traders are questioning whether Monday’s move was a one-day flush or the start of a longer de-rating for that type of model.

Swipe Fee Settlement Adds Separate Pressure

Visa also faces an unresolved legal overhang. In November, Visa and Mastercard put forward a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants over swipe fees. A judge has not yet approved it.

By Tuesday premarket, Visa had recovered modestly — up 0.2% to $307.09, clawing back a small slice of Monday’s losses.

Looking ahead, Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell is scheduled to appear at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Commercial & Money Movement Solutions President Chris Newkirk is set for the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.

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