Home Depot (HD) Stock: Finally Beats Wall Street After Three Straight Earnings Misses

TLDR

• Home Depot beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.72 vs. $2.54 expected
• Total Q4 sales fell 3.8% to $38.20B, partly due to one fewer week in the fiscal calendar
• Comparable sales rose 0.4% overall and 0.3% in the U.S.
• Quarterly dividend raised 1.3% to $2.33 per share — the 156th consecutive quarterly payment
• Fiscal 2026 guidance set for total sales growth of 2.5%–4.5% and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4%

Home Depot posted Q4 fiscal 2025 results Tuesday, beating Wall Street on both earnings and revenue after missing estimates three quarters in a row.

Adjusted EPS came in at $2.72 against the $2.54 expected. Revenue hit $38.20 billion, edging past the $38.12 billion consensus.

Total sales fell 3.8% year-over-year from $39.70 billion. The company attributed roughly $2.5 billion of that gap to the prior year’s quarter having 14 weeks versus 13 this time.

The Home Depot, Inc., HD

Comparable sales rose 0.4% for the overall business and 0.3% in the U.S. Store transactions dropped 1.6% year-over-year, but average ticket size climbed 2.4%. Big-ticket purchases over $1,000 were up 1.3%.

Net income came in at $2.57 billion, or $2.58 per diluted share, down from $3.0 billion, or $3.02 per share, in the year-ago period.

A Housing Market That Won’t Budge

Higher interest rates and low housing turnover have pushed homeowners to delay bigger renovation projects — the kind that typically follow buying or selling a home.

One potential bright spot: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 5.99% on Monday, its lowest level since 2022, according to Mortgage News Daily. Home Depot’s biggest selling season — spring — is also approaching.

Pro Business and Acquisitions Carry Weight

While DIY customers have pulled back, the Pro segment held stronger. McPhail confirmed Pro sales outpaced DIY in Q4 without sharing specific figures.

Home Depot backed that segment with two major acquisitions — SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion in 2024 and GMS, a specialty building products distributor, for around $4.3 billion. The company now operates 2,359 retail stores and over 1,250 SRS locations.

Tariffs, Dividends, and What’s Next

Home Depot raised its quarterly dividend 1.3% to $2.33 per share, payable March 26, 2026. It marks the 156th consecutive quarterly dividend.

On tariffs, McPhail said the company is still analyzing the impact of President Trump’s proposed 15% across-the-board global tariff, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down parts of the earlier import duties. More than half of what Home Depot sells is sourced domestically, and it’s working to ensure no single foreign country exceeds 10% of total purchases.

For fiscal 2026, Home Depot guided for total sales growth of 2.5%–4.5%, comparable sales growth of flat to 2%, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4% from a $14.69 base.

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