Bitcoin tests $58K as ETF outflows risk fifth monthly drop

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin nears fifth monthly decline; $58,000 support is pivotal for sentiment.
• ETF redemptions and strong dollar turn prior demand into selling pressure.
• Traders eye $65K rebound gauge, $60K defense, risk-off below $58K.

Bitcoin is heading toward a potential fifth consecutive monthly decline, with support near $58,000 in focus, as reported by CryptoSlate. The setup links price pressure to shifting flow dynamics and broader risk sentiment. A decisive loss of that area could reset expectations and reinforce a risk‑off regime.

Traders are watching $65,000 as a gauge of rebound strength and $60,000 as near‑term defense. A move toward $58,000–$55,000 would likely reflect persistent supply from regulated products rather than crypto‑native catalysts. These zones frame risk scenarios rather than firm forecasts.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded several consecutive weeks of redemptions totaling roughly $4.5 billion, as reported by MarketWatch. In a higher‑rate, stronger‑dollar backdrop and with the Federal Reserve still central to risk appetite, those flows invert last year’s demand impulse into incremental supply. That helps explain why rallies fade faster and why $58,000 has outsized importance for sentiment.

Institutional positioning appears tactically risk‑off, with some allocators reducing exposure rather than rotating within crypto. Based on data from Glassnode, the flow‑weighted average cost basis across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs sits near $89,600, implying many recent buyers may be underwater at current levels. Cost‑basis pressure does not force redemptions, but it can dampen dip‑buying until volatility stabilizes.

Recent flow differentials versus last year illustrate the change in tone. “U.S.-based spot ETFs have sold a net of $2.6 billion so far in 2026. This contrasts with net buying of $4.3 billion in the same period of 2025. This is a $6.9 billion buying gap from 2025,” said Julio Moreno at CryptoQuant.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin trades around $64,241, alongside a bearish sentiment reading and a 14‑day RSI near 32.62. Volatility is elevated at about 10.68%, and price sits below its 50‑ and 200‑day simple moving averages of $81,057 and $98,983. These context metrics help explain why institutional flows and the $58,000–$60,000 corridor are steering near‑term direction.

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