Bitcoin Investment Thesis Still Intact Despite ETF Exit, Analysis Says.

Bitcoin (BTC) will see “purification” as a new wave of institutional money stays long BTC for decades, says EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson.

Key points:

• BTC has become a “high-beta tech position,” thanks to ETFs and institutional involvement.

• Bitcoin ETF sellers will give way to longer-term institutional buyers, analysis predicts.

• Stablecoin supply needs to recover to upend the bearish trend.

Bitcoin ETF moves “not a store of value”

In an X post on Tuesday, Jackson predicted more stable BTC price strength in the future despite the current institutional exodus.

“BTC didn’t fail as an asset. It succeeded as an ETF. And that’s the problem,” he summarized.

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to see regular net outflows, compounding already weak price action and underscoring Bitcoin’s bearish trend change that hit in October 2025.

Jackson notes that currently, Bitcoin moves in lockstep with BlackRock’s iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). BlackRock also runs the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

“From $126K to $63K. Every time IGV sells off, BTC sells off with it. That’s not a store of value. That’s a high-beta tech position with a different logo,” he continued. 

In contrast to the 2021 bull market, institutions have become the “marginal buyer” this cycle, while retail investors have piled into tech stocks. With gold hitting new all-time highs, Bitcoin is currently getting left behind — though he argued this dynamic could shift in future cycles.

Jackson is eyeing an end to the IGV sell pressure and the reemergence of stablecoin supply expansion on exchanges — an important bullish trigger.

“But here’s what the bears are missing. Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” he explained. 

Looking beyond Bitcoin’s “institutional exit”

The new wave of institutional money in the years to come will have an entirely different ethos — one that is music to the ears of long-suffering BTC hodlers.

Related: Hodlers have ‘given up’ at $65K: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“What comes next? Sovereign wealth funds. Corporate treasuries. Pension capital. Money that doesn’t rebalance into quarters. Money that doesn’t correlate to IGV. Money that holds for decades, not cycles,” Jackson forecast. 

The latest data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors puts Monday’s net Bitcoin ETF outflows at just over $200 million.

BTC/USD dipped under $63,000 on Tuesday, per data from TradingView, marking its lowest levels since hitting 15-month lows earlier in February.

As Cointelegraph reported, market participants have set new macro bottom targets nearer the $50,000 mark.