Dogecoin [DOGE], at the time of writing, was trading at a key structural and technical level. According to AMBCrypto, the leading memecoin was trading at a rare historical discount, potentially building a long-term base before the next rebound.
The “number of days spent at profit” on-chain metric, which measures the number of historical trading days that traded above the press time price, was 1100. This was an all-time high, which meant that a large chunk of DOGE holders were underwater.
Conditions like these emerge during late-stage corrections. It may be indicative of a large overhead supply and plenty of long-term DOGE bag holders. The structural cycle metric did not seem to warn of an imminent market bottom either.
How did so many DOGE buyers end up underwater?
Source: Glassnode
The Dogecoin Hodler Net Position Change metric measures the monthly position change of long-term investors, or hodlers. Negative readings show investors cashing out, and positive changes indicate Hodlers were buying.
During the 2021 rally and the late 2024 rally, we did see sizeable chunks of DOGE sold during the cycle tops. The clearest examples were April-May 2021, October-November 2021, and November-December 2021.
It appeared that long-term investors were eager to book profits, and many successfully recognized overextended Dogecoin market conditions.
At the same time, the Hodler buying activity during periods such as July-October 2021 (DOGE traded between $0.195-$0.340), and April-October 2024 (DOGE traded between $0.095-$0.170) contributed to why holders were underwater.
The biggest reason was also the consistent buying since January 2025. The bullish expectations of Bitcoin [BTC] came undone in October 2025, and DOGE has also been trending south in recent months.
The steady buying over the past year, when DOGE fell from $0.35 to $0.092, explained the unprecedented Number of Days Spent at a Profit milestone covered previously.
Source: Glassnode
The MVRV pricing bands use the market value to realized value ratios to understand if the memecoin market is in extreme unrealized profit (high values indicating cycle tops) or extreme unrealized loss (low values indicating cycle bottoms).
During the previous two cycles, Dogecoin traded around and below the 0.8RP (0.8x realized price) for two years before it climbed back above the realized price support.
If history repeats itself, DOGE might need two more years of a long-term downtrend before it can convincingly recapture the realized price level as support. At the time of writing, this level was at $0.140.
Final Summary
- Dogecoin’s rally in late 2024 sparked a run of consistent Hodler buying over the past year, even as prices descended into a downtrend.
- MVRV pricing bands revealed that DOGE was extremely discounted, but the long-term downtrend might continue for another year or more.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/dogecoin-why-history-suggests-holders-can-expect-2-more-years-of-pain/
