BTC accumulation declines in February after strong start to the year

BTC accumulation was one of the factors that could calm the market, as there were signs of accumulation to new addresses. In February, the pace of accumulation slowed down, showing that even spot demand was weakening at the current price range. 

BTC accumulation remained weak in February, despite the lower price range. As sentiment remained near all-time lows, neither whales nor retail rushed in to buy the dip. BTC remained under selling pressure, as all attempts at recovery were followed by selling. 

In the short term, the leading coin still managed to recover to $65,000, but rejected the $70,000 range. As a result, instead of FOMO buying, BTC is now undergoing slower accumulation and waiting for a further correction. 

Based on Glassnode data, the BTC accumulation score has barely budged above 0.5 points since early February. Currently, BTC trades in a defensive price range, dipping below previous support levels. The market also went through the sharpest capitulation event since 2022, with almost no hopes of a rapid recovery. 

BTC posts slower address activity

BTC addresses with non-zero balance are still growing, but at a much slower pace. New address creation is flat, instead of breaking out exponentially, showing BTC is no longer the object of rushed investments. 

The current BTC holding ratio shows no dominance of either whales or retail. The ratio has remained flat in the past month. Most of the whale transfers in BTC are linked to institutions or market makers, as some of the crypto native whales slowed down their activity.

Traders are still cautious and waiting for more signs of a local bottom to form, with potential predictions of a dip to the $50,000 range. 

BTC reserves on Binance reach 15-month peak

While inflows to wallets slowed down, more BTC moved to exchanges, and particularly to Binance. 

Exchange reserves in total are at 2.75M BTC, close to the lower range. However, Binance reserves expanded in February, reaching their highest level since late 2024. 

Currently, Binance holds over 674K BTC, with increased whale inflows. Binance is used as the most liquid market to take profits. Inflows to the exchange have usually coincided with BTC selling and new local lows. 

The BTC price direction is often dictated by derivative markets. However, the presence of coins potentially ready to sell is also a big factor. Binance is especially exposed to selling, which may liquidate long positions and discourage directional bets on BTC. 

The crypto fear and greed index is therefore at 11 points, signaling extreme fear. This reflects the reluctance to take up long positions, which could be liquidated by selling. 

The slowdown of spot holders also raises the question of long-term trust in BTC. The slow accumulation and selling undermine trust in long-term BTC growth, or at least point to a longer crypto winter.

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