First Solar (FSLR) Stock Falls 15% on Weak 2026 Revenue Guidance

TLDR

• First Solar (FSLR) stock fell around 15% after issuing 2026 revenue guidance of $4.9B–$5.2B, well below analyst estimates of ~$6.16B.
• Q4 earnings came in at $4.84 per share, missing estimates by 30 cents, though revenue beat at $1.68B vs. $1.57B expected.
• Fiscal 2025 net sales hit a record $5.2B, up from $4.2B the prior year.
• The company expects a tariff impact of $125M–$135M in 2026 and cited permitting delays and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.
• A new South Carolina finishing line is expected to begin production in Q4 2026 to help optimize freight and domestic content.

First Solar dropped roughly 15% on Wednesday after the company’s 2026 revenue outlook came in well below what Wall Street was expecting.

The solar panel maker guided for 2026 net sales of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. Analysts had been looking for around $6.16 billion, according to FactSet.

That’s a wide miss, and the market didn’t take it lightly.

First Solar, Inc., FSLR

For the fourth quarter, First Solar reported earnings of $4.84 per share, falling 30 cents short of the average analyst estimate. Revenue for the quarter rose 11% year-over-year to $1.68 billion, actually beating the $1.57 billion analysts expected.

So the revenue beat, but the earnings miss and the forward guidance were enough to send the stock tumbling.

Full-year 2025 results were actually solid. Net sales hit a record $5.2 billion, up from $4.2 billion in 2024, driven by higher module volumes. Full-year earnings came in at $14.21 per share.

Coming into Tuesday’s report, FSLR was already down nearly 7% year-to-date, though it had gained over 55% in the prior 12 months.

Policy Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook

The company was direct about what’s weighing on 2026: the current U.S. policy environment.

First Solar said its guidance assumes current policies remain in place. President Trump has imposed new tariffs of 15% on certain imports lasting 150 days, on top of existing aluminum and steel tariffs.

The company expects total tariff exposure of $125 million to $135 million this year.

Permitting delays and a freeze on major project approvals under the current administration are also hitting the broader solar sector. The Trump administration’s energy agenda has focused on oil, gas, coal, and nuclear — a clear shift away from the green energy policies of the Biden years.

Demand for First Solar’s Series 6 module — produced in Malaysia and Vietnam and aimed at utility-scale solar plants — remains constrained under this environment.

New U.S. Facility Aims to Offset Some Headwinds

To work around tariff exposure, First Solar is opening a new finishing line in South Carolina, expected to come online in Q4 2026.

The facility will use components from its Southeast Asian plants but finish production domestically, helping to optimize freight costs, tariff exposure, and domestic content requirements.

First Solar also commissioned a new factory in Louisiana in 2025 and has decided to build another in South Carolina.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos described the weak 2026 outlook as a “clearing event” that could position the company for a volume recovery in 2027 — provided no additional tariffs are imposed.

In premarket trading Wednesday, FSLR was down as much as 16.7%.

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