Bitcoin Holders Underwater As Supply In Loss Spikes, Reaching Historic Extremes

After several attempts, the Bitcoin price finally reclaimed the $65,000 mark, but ongoing volatility and uncertainty across the cryptocurrency market still linger. With BTC falling below this support level, pressure on investors appears to have increased significantly, as evidenced by the number of BTC supply now in loss.

Record Levels of Bitcoin Now Sitting At A Loss

The pressure on the market and investors has increased following the recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price. Given the price pullback, the BTC supply that is positioned at a loss has spiked sharply, indicating a bearish outlook for the market and the flagship asset.

A recent data reading is showing that Bitcoin is coming into a critical stress point, with the percentage of supply held at a loss rising to one of the highest levels ever seen. This dramatic increase, which reflects the severity of the recent price downturn, indicates that an increasing proportion of owners are now underwater.

As seen in the chart shared by James Van Straten, an advisor and senior analyst at the popular CoinDesk news outlet, the number of BTC supply now caught in the loss side just rose to 10 million BTC. It is worth noting that this figure marks the fourth-highest reading ever since its existence.

According to the reading, an additional 70,000 BTC from those purchased between February 6 and 24 are in loss. As a result of this, the circulating supply is believed to hit 20 million BTC next week, which represents a 50% in loss. Given the massive supply loss, the potential of a market bottom already taking place is high. This is because history suggests that it would be sufficient capital destruction for a bear market bottom.

BTC’s Investors’ Action In The Current Market State

Darkfost highlighted that it is crucial to continue examining the actions of the various investor cohorts in the market as long as the BTC situation does not improve. BTC Long-Term Holders are the primary investors in the framework, known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.

The average profit of the long-term holders is currently positioned at 74%, but this is steadily dropping as prices move closer to the LTH cost basis estimated at around $38,900. However, this cost base is static and continues to increase over time as STHs that purchased Bitcoin at higher prices move into the LTH category. 

Historic data reveal that a final capitulation phase defined by realized losses of about 20% has been triggered by price breaching below this cost basis in every bear market. Meanwhile, the market tends to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal after this phase has concluded.

Darfost noted that this should be viewed as an observation based on a small number of instances rather than a rule. However, it remains a scenario worth considering and preparing for. Given how this cycle has evolved, with the arrival of institutions, corporate entities, and even sovereign actors, the possibility of these structural changes being sufficient to shift the outcome becomes high. 

Darkfost has warned against following those claiming uncertainty on this matter. “Nothing is predictable, and the market ultimately dictates the outcome,” the expert added.