XRP Price Prediction: Compression Below $1.40 Builds Pressure—Will $1.50 Trigger a Structure Break?

As of February 25, 2026, XRP is trading near $1.39, recovering roughly 3–4% over the past 24 hours with daily spot volume approaching $3 billion across major exchanges. While the short-term rebound has improved intraday sentiment, the asset remains down more than 15% for the month, reflecting broader corrective pressure across the crypto market.

The current debate centers on whether this consolidation phase represents accumulation ahead of expansion, or simply a pause within a broader downtrend. The $1.40 level has emerged as the near-term pivot after multiple intraday rejections over the past week.

Technical Structure Signals Cautious Optimism

A review of the 4-hour XRP/USDT chart on TradingView shows repeated tests of the $1.40 area, with each pullback printing progressively lower sell volume. That pattern can suggest supply absorption rather than aggressive distribution, though confirmation requires a sustained breakout.

A sustained move above $1.40 could pave the way for XRP to advance toward the $1.50 range high. Source: @CryptoTony__ via X

On the weekly timeframe, structure remains intact above the $1.24–$1.30 support band. This range aligns with prior consolidation in late 2025 and represents a liquidity cluster where buyers previously stepped in. As long as weekly closes hold above that zone, the broader structure does not formally shift bearish.

Momentum indicators reflect compression rather than expansion:

• Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling a volatility contraction phase.
• RSI sits in neutral territory, avoiding oversold conditions but lacking strong bullish divergence.
• XRP continues to trade below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are currently sloping downward, an indication that medium-term trend pressure has not yet reversed.

A daily close above $1.50 with volume exceeding the 20-day average would establish a higher high on the daily structure. That would improve the probability of continuation toward the $1.62–$1.65 region. Without that confirmation, price action remains range-bound.

Liquidity Behavior and Market Positioning

Recent price action included a sharp momentum candle following a sweep of local lows near $1.30. From a market structure perspective, this resembles a liquidity grab, where sell stops are triggered before price reverses upward.

XRP absorbed selling pressure, broke descending resistance, and shows controlled accumulation, with potential upside targets near $1.62 and $1.93 if momentum continues. Source: MyCryptoParadise on TradingView

However, terms such as “order block” and “effort versus result” are interpretive frameworks rather than standardized metrics. What is objectively observable is that XRP absorbed heavy selling near monthly lows and printed a strong recovery candle. Whether that reflects institutional positioning or short-covering cannot be conclusively determined from spot charts alone.

Derivatives data adds nuance. Perpetual funding rates have remained relatively neutral, indicating that leverage positioning is not excessively skewed. This reduces the likelihood of immediate liquidation cascades in either direction and supports the thesis of compression before expansion.

Ripple, Regulation, and Structural Drivers Behind XRP

Beyond technicals, regulatory clarity has played a measurable role in stabilizing sentiment around Ripple Labs and its associated token.

XRP shows tightening Bollinger Bands and a neutral RSI, with a potential breakout above $1.50 targeting $1.65 and $1.90. Source: sahanavv on TradingView

The long-running case between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission resulted in a partial summary judgment that clarified aspects of XRP’s secondary market sales. While certain institutional sales were scrutinized, programmatic exchange sales were not deemed securities transactions under that ruling.

This distinction reduced a significant legal overhang. However, regulatory classification questions surrounding digital assets in the United States remain an evolving area of law, and future guidance could still influence long-term positioning.

Regarding exchange-traded products, several XRP-linked ETPs launched in late 2025 in select jurisdictions. While capital flows have been constructive, precise cumulative inflow figures vary by issuer and region. Without consolidated reporting standards, it is difficult to verify aggregate totals. As such, ETF-related demand should be viewed as supportive but not singularly determinative of price direction.

Key Levels to Watch

For short-term traders and swing participants, the following thresholds remain relevant:

• Support: $1.30–$1.32
  
• Structural weekly support: $1.24
  
• Immediate resistance: $1.45–$1.46
  
• Breakout confirmation: High-volume daily close above $1.50
  
• Next upside region: $1.62–$1.65

Measured Outlook

The current XRP price setup reflects compression beneath resistance rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Volatility is contracting. Liquidity is clustered. Momentum is neutral.

XRP was trading at around $1.395, up 4.78% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

If price clears $1.50 with expanding participation, the technical structure would shift toward higher highs on the daily timeframe, improving continuation odds. Absent that breakout, XRP remains in a defined consolidation range with balanced risk in both directions.

For now, the $1.40–$1.50 corridor will likely determine whether this phase resolves into expansion or extends into further range-bound movement over the coming sessions.