Bitcoin’s $10.5B Options Expiry Could End Bear Market – Here’s How

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has paused after a modest rally, carving an eight-day high while building a double bottom near $62,500. Despite the bounce, the token remains roughly 21% below its level from a month ago, underscoring the uphill path for bulls entering Friday’s massive options expiry. The $10.5 billion BTC options series looms large, with traders weighing whether a late bid can flip momentum or if selling pressure resumes as settlement approaches. Deribit continues to lead the space, accounting for about 76% of turnover, while OKX and CME register smaller but meaningful shares. In this environment, price action, tech-equity sentiment and macro developments converge to shape outcomes as traders position for what could be a pivotal weekend for BTC.

Key takeaways

• Bulls face a required roughly 9% rally from around $68,800 to tilt the balance in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry, underscoring how a single session can redefine near-term momentum.
• The asset’s price dynamics remain tightly linked to tech sentiment, with Bitcoin showing a 90% correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index, signaling that AI-driven earnings and risk appetite in equities can spill into crypto flows.
• Deribit dominates the derivatives landscape with about $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in put options, roughly three-quarters of the total market, followed by OKX and CME as secondary venues.
• Put options appear structurally resilient, and a substantial portion of call bets would expire worthless if BTC stays below $70,000 on Friday, highlighting skew toward downside protection in the event of a renewed pullback.
• Analysts point to a distribution of open interest across strikes that suggests potential tail-risk hedges around $60k–$75k, with three plausible expiry outcomes by price band (65k–69k, 69k–71k, 71k–74k).

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $NVDA

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The setup points to several potential expiry outcomes rather than a clear directional edge, pending Friday’s settlement.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given the mixed signals and the dependency on the Friday expiry, a cautious stance remains prudent until price action clarifies the balance of risk.

Market context: The crypto complex continues to absorb climate-driven moves from equities, especially where AI-driven growth and large-cap tech results drive risk sentiment. The link between BTC and the Nasdaq suggests liquidity and sentiment could hinge on tech earnings and macro developments in the near term.

Why it matters

The proximity of a major options expiry adds a layer of probabilistic dynamics to BTC’s price path. If Friday’s settlement tilts the risk-reward balance toward puts, downside pressure could re-emerge, even if a broader macro backdrop improves later in the week. Conversely, a decisive rally back toward the mid-$70,000s could unlock renewed upside potential as hedges unwind and bullish bets reassert themselves. This interplay matters for traders betting on short-term volatility, for market-makers managing gamma exposure, and for investors watching risk parity dynamics across asset classes.

Beyond the technical setup, the influence of Nvidia’s earnings on risk appetite cannot be overstated. The company’s results, released after the market close, intersect with the AI sector’s broader profitability trajectory and margins, which have been a critical driver of forward-looking confidence in tech equities. A robust AI narrative tends to buoy liquidity across risk assets, including crypto, while disappointing guidance can deepen risk-off moves that weigh on BTC and related tokens. This cross-asset feedback loop helps explain why the BTC-iShares Nasdaq relationship remains a meaningful lens for traders assessing near-term catalysts.

In the backdrop, the derivative structure reveals a cautious stance among market participants. The largest share of put exposure sits below the current price, while still substantial upside hedges exist at higher strikes. This composition means that even if the spot moves higher, a portion of the derivative book remains positioned to dampen exuberance, reflecting a pragmatic approach to risk management as traders await Friday’s definitive outcome.

What to watch next

• Friday’s BTC options expiry outcomes by price band (65,000–69,000; 69,000–71,000; 71,000–74,000) and the resulting net tilt between puts vs. calls.
• Shifts in Deribit’s open interest and any reallocation of market share among OKX and CME after settlement.
• The Nvidia earnings release and any revised guidance that could alter AI-driven risk sentiment.
• BTC price action around the 60,000 and 75,000 levels and any validation of the upper and lower bounds suggested by the current option structure.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin price action and the eight-day high with a double bottom near $62,500 as markets digest the upcoming expiry.
• Deribit’s market share and the breakdown of $4.5 billion in calls and $3.4 billion in puts.
• OKX and CME derivatives volumes: approximately $610 million in calls / $385 million in puts (OKX) and $255 million in calls / $287 million in puts (CME).
• Nvidia’s earnings outcomes and their potential impact on risk appetite for AI-related growth stocks.
• The observed 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index, illustrating the tech-led sentiment linkage.

Bitcoin options expiry tests bulls as AI-driven sentiment sways risk assets

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) drifted to an eight-day peak as traders prepared for what could be a defining week for risk assets. A double bottom near the $62,500 zone offered a technical foothold, yet the asset remains about 21% below its level from a month earlier, underscoring the uphill climb for bulls ahead of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry. The event is more than a headline risk; it is a liquidity and risk-management inflection point that can shape the near-term trajectory for BTC. Deribit remains the dominant venue, commanding roughly three-quarters of the market with approximately $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in puts, while OKX and CME hold meaningful but smaller roles in the overall turnover. The market is balancing the lure of a potential rebound against the probability of further volatility driven by macro cues and tech-sector performance.

The derivatives landscape reveals a nuanced stance: although puts appear structurally well-positioned to absorb bearish shocks, a meaningful chunk of neutral-to-bullish positions was unsettled by BTC’s retreat below $75,000 in February. Data show that about 88% of Deribit’s call options would expire worthless if BTC remains under $70,000 on Friday, a statistic that underscores the risk premium baked into the expiring contracts. Even after stripping out extreme multi-leg strategies—often used to chase higher strikes—roughly 37% of the remaining bets sit below $75,000, implying that a robust rally is required to flip the balance in favor of bulls before expiry.

The balance of power in the larger market hinges on the broader tech narrative. The recent correlation suggests that as the Nasdaq moves, BTC tends to follow, at least in the near term. Nvidia (EXCHANGE: NVDA) looms large as a proxy for AI-driven demand and corporate margins; its earnings outcome, due after the close, could tilt risk appetite and inject further volatility into both equities and crypto. While Bitcoin’s path remains sensitive to the tech-driven risk-on/risk-off cycle, the current setup highlights that a decisive move would be necessary to overcome the accumulated option-based hedges and usher in a renewed upside trajectory.

Three plausible expiry outcomes emerge from the current price trajectory. If BTC trades between $65,000 and $69,000, puts have the edge by about $1.15 billion. In the $69,001–$71,000 range, puts would still dominate by roughly $845 million. If BTC finishes the week between $71,001 and $74,000, demand appears skewed toward puts with about $470 million in net exposure. Taken together, the data point to a scenario where a sustained rally beyond the current price is needed to shift the narrative, even as hedging structures offer a guardrail for contrarian bets. The dynamic nature of the option book means traders should stay vigilant for shifts in open interest across the major venues as Friday’s settlement approaches.

The interplay between crypto and traditional markets remains the defining feature of this period. While BTC can diverge from equities on longer horizons, the near-term linkage—especially via tech earnings and AI sentiment—continues to imprint volatility and liquidity conditions on the space. As the expiry nears, market participants will be watching not only the price levels but also how the hedges evolve in Deribit, OKX, and CME to determine the probable path for BTC in the days ahead.

This article was originally published as Bitcoin’s $10.5B Options Expiry Could End Bear Market – Here’s How on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.