CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock: What to Watch When Earnings Drop Today

TLDR

• Q4 revenue expected at $1.55 billion, up 101% year-over-year, with a projected net loss of $342 million.
• Remaining performance obligations (RPO) forecast to rise to $60–$65 billion, up from $55 billion last quarter.
• Nvidia announced a $2 billion equity investment in CoreWeave, expanding their partnership.
• CoreWeave carries nearly $19 billion in debt and lease liabilities to fund its data center buildout.
• The stock is up 148% since its March IPO, but has dropped 21% and 16% after its last two earnings reports.

CoreWeave is heading into its Q4 earnings report on Thursday with a lot riding on the numbers.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

The AI cloud provider has been one of the market’s standout performers, up around 40% this year and 148% since its IPO last March. But its earnings history tells a more cautious story.

After each of its last two earnings reports, the stock fell — 21% after one, and 16% after the other. That’s the kind of track record that keeps traders on edge.

Wall Street expects Q4 revenue of $1.55 billion, which would represent 101% year-over-year growth. A net loss of $342 million is also on the cards, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

That loss is wider than the year before, driven largely by interest expense on CoreWeave’s growing debt load. The company had nearly $19 billion in debt and lease liabilities as of the end of September.

The business model is straightforward, if aggressive: use long-term customer contracts to borrow money, build data centers, generate revenue, then borrow more. It’s working — for now.

CoreWeave’s customer backlog, known as remaining performance obligations, stood at over $55 billion last quarter. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill expects that to climb to $60–$65 billion for Q4, with a bigger acceleration expected in the first half of 2026.

The company’s top customers include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and OpenAI — a list that gives lenders confidence to keep extending credit.

Nvidia Deepens Its Bet

Last month, Nvidia announced a $2 billion equity investment in CoreWeave as part of an expanded partnership. Nvidia is already CoreWeave’s chip supplier, a customer, and an investor — and now it’s stepping in as a capital partner too.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke noted that Nvidia will act as “a high-investment-grade counterparty” to help CoreWeave secure land, power, and data center infrastructure more competitively. Jefferies called it a “force multiplier.”

The deal is seen as a way to lower CoreWeave’s cost of capital, which has been a pressure point for the company.

Debt Concerns Linger

Not everything has been smooth. CoreWeave trimmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance last quarter after a data center delay, cutting its outlook from $5.15–$5.25 billion to $5.05–$5.15 billion.

Last Friday, the stock dropped on a report suggesting that alternative asset manager Blue Owl was struggling to sell CoreWeave data center debt to lenders — even with Nvidia’s backing. Both companies denied the report.

Adding to the volatility is Magnetar, CoreWeave’s largest early investor. At IPO, Magnetar held 96 million shares — about a fifth of the company. After lock-up restrictions expired in August, it began steadily trimming that position. By end of December, it held 68 million shares, though that stake still represented roughly half the fund’s value.

Full-year 2025 total revenue is expected to come in at $5.11 billion. Investors will also be watching for 2026 guidance on sales and capital expenditures when CoreWeave reports Thursday.

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