Trump enemy faces reckoning from MAGA base

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has made a considerable reputation for himself as an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, but according to a new report from NOTUS, he now faces a reckoning from the MAGA base as he seeks reelection.

Massie emerged as one of the most notable conservative opponents of the president over the last year, as he co-sponsored the bill to force the disclosure of files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Amid that push, he has frequently called out the White House and MAGA supporters for their opposition to the release of the files, and has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of other moves made by Trump during his second term.

Now, however, he is staring down a primary challenge from a candidate who has Trump's endorsement. Despite some early signs that a segment of GOP voters are souring on Trump, he maintains a substantial hold on the base overall, with his endorsement often seen as sealing the deal in Republican primaries. In a report published Thursday, NOTUS broke down how Massie is approaching this challenge and how "independence from Trump could hurt him at home."

In the race for Massie's seat, representing Kentucky's 4th District, Trump has backed Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and Army Ranger, as a primary challenger. Gallrein has loudly attacked Massie for insufficient loyalty to Trump and the GOP's agenda, accusing him of giving "aid and comfort" to Democrats.

“He sided with the Democrats and the Squad,” Gallrein told NOTUS. “He’s their MVP. He’s their swing vote. He’s their national treasure.”

While Massie has made a habit of opposing Trump on matters such as his prized tariffs and his "One Big Beautiful Bill" last summer, Gallrein "showed no hint of disagreement with the president," NOTUS remarked in its report, noting further that Massie's criticism of the president "is almost the entirety of Gallrein’s message to voters beyond his own background.

“I’d call him a Judas,” Gallrein said. “You can’t even call him a Benedict Arnold.”

For his part, Massie has stressed to Kentucky voters that he has often voted in lockstep with Trump and the rest of the GOP, backing the president's initiatives in votes 91 percent of the time. The congressman also argued to NOTUS that his recent moves are less about opposing Trump and more "about implementing the type of agenda that Trump promised on the campaign trail."

“My constituents already know I’m ‘America First,’ I’m not for starting another war,” Massie argued. “I’m not for deficit spending. And I led the charge to expose a bunch of rich and powerful and politically connected men in the Epstein files. Those are the areas that I’ve differed with the president. So where I differed with the president, my constituents understand why I’ve differed with the president.”Allies close to Massie have warned that, despite dealing with Trump's ire as far back as 2020, this year's midterms could be his toughest race yet, owing to the renewed intensity of the MAGA backlash.

"This race has come down to Trump vs. Massie,” Shane Noem, chair of the Kenton County Republican Party, said. “And it’s really become a pick-a-side moment for a lot of voters.”

The primary race between Massie and Gallrein is not until May, and for the time being, polling indicates that Massie holds a strong lead. The congressman has asserted that his campaign's internal polling shows him with a 17-point lead, though Gallrein has disputed the validity of those findings and Massie declined to provide a copy of the survey to NOTUS. Fundraising hauls also indicate that Massie might be reaping rewards after his break with Trump.

Speaking with constituents on the ground, NOTUS found signs of some GOP voters abandoning Massie, though the sample sizes were limited.

"NOTUS spoke with five Republican voters who were members of the veterans coffee club Gallrein spoke to [last week], all of whom said they had backed the congressman in past primaries," the report detailed. "All of them said they would vote for Gallrein now."

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