Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Death Cross Puts $66K Support at Risk — Will BTC Reclaim $74K as IBIT Signals Fresh Accumulation?

The cryptocurrency rebounded quickly from the fakeout, but technical signals and historical patterns suggest heightened volatility in the coming weeks.

Analysts are monitoring key support and resistance levels, including $66,200, $69,000, and $71,000, to determine potential price paths. Market participants are weighing both bullish and bearish scenarios, factoring in macroeconomic influences and institutional flows to assess Bitcoin’s next major move.

Technical Signals and Market Structure

Market strategist Prof Satoshi Nakamoto, who has over a decade of experience analyzing cryptocurrency futures, highlighted that Bitcoin rebounded from support at $65,748 to recent highs near $68,752 as of February 26, 2026. Nakamoto emphasized unidirectional positioning in strong markets to reduce potential losses during volatility, noting that incomplete orders in the dominant trend can protect capital.

Prof Satoshi Nakamoto outlines a bullish Bitcoin plan, favoring unidirectional trades from $65,748 to $68,752 to protect capital in volatile markets. Source: Prof Satoshi Nakamoto via X

Historical context adds caution. Analyst Ali Charts, who tracks long-term Bitcoin cycles using TradingView and CryptoPotato data, observed that after Bitcoin’s 2017 peak, a 3-day death cross in 2018 preceded a 50% capitulation drop.

Bitcoin’s historical 3-day death crosses often preceded major drops, though current institutional support may limit losses. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Similar signals in 2014, 2018, and 2022 coincided with major bear market bottoms. Analysts caution that while institutional inflows and market maturity since 2017 may reduce extreme volatility, the current death cross could indicate downside risk toward $30,000–$40,000.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching

Several critical price levels are attracting attention:

• $66,200 – short-term support; a sustained breach could accelerate selling pressure.
• $69,000 – potential activation of a V-shaped recovery, where price rebounds sharply from a low point.
• $71,000 – breakout above this level may validate bullish momentum.

Aaron Hill highlights Bitcoin demand at $35K–$44.9K and resistance near $74.9K, aligned with Fibonacci and AB=CD patterns. Source: FP Markets on TradingView

Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FP Markets, notes that larger patterns, such as a monthly head-and-shoulders formation, suggest potential profit objectives near $34,590. Meanwhile, an AB=CD resistance pattern around $74,941—a technical symmetry pattern signaling potential reversal points—may attract sellers. Fibonacci retracement levels at $74,377 and $74,675 also mark potential resistance for bullish continuation.

Technical patterns like AB=CD or V-shaped recoveries illustrate potential behavior based on historical price symmetry; they do not guarantee future moves.

Triangle Breakdown and Fibonacci Retest

Another important technical signal is a triangle breakdown, which occurs when the price compresses into lower highs and higher lows before breaking downward. After such a breakdown, it is common for the price to retest the former support line, which may now act as resistance.

Bitcoin’s triangle breakdown, followed by a retest and 0.618 Fibonacci pullback, sets the stage for a potential continuation of the downtrend. Source: johnGGiraldo on TradingView

This retest often aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, particularly the 0.618 level, which can act as a temporary ceiling. Traders monitor this closely, as a rejection here could signal continuation of a downtrend, while a successful breakthrough may support a reversal.

Macro Context: Bitcoin Amid Monetary and Market Shifts

Broader macroeconomic factors also influence Bitcoin’s price behavior. U.S. monetary policy, including Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and liquidity conditions, affects investors’ appetite for risk assets such as BTC. Fluctuating inflation expectations have reinforced Bitcoin’s dual role as a speculative asset and a potential hedge against monetary debasement.

Institutional adoption, including inflows into BTC ETFs, has provided additional structural support, mitigating some volatility compared with previous cycles. Nevertheless, historical patterns indicate that macroeconomic pressures can still trigger corrections, making Bitcoin’s trajectory sensitive to both global finance and crypto-specific dynamics.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Technical Analysis: Accumulation Near $35 Signals Potential Expansion Toward $50

The iShares Bitcoin Trust, trading under ticker IBIT ($IBIT) on the Nasdaq, is showing signs of completing a potential double-bottom formation after recently testing $35.60, just above the February 5 low of $35.30. A major technical highlight is the massive volume spike recorded between February 3 and February 5, when over $10 billion worth of shares changed hands during peak panic conditions. While volatility indicators pointed to capitulation selling, the scale of the volume suggests that institutional accumulation likely took place during the sharp decline.

IBIT is testing a near double bottom around $35, with volume trends signaling a likely move toward $50. Source: VIAQUANT on TradingView

From a volume profile perspective, $IBIT appears to be building a strong accumulation base within the $34–$40 range. The VPVR (Visible Range Volume Profile) shows a thick volume shelf in this zone, indicating heavy trading activity and the establishment of a potential price floor. The Value Area Low (VAL) sits near $41, aligning closely with the February 6 high of $40.57. A decisive break above this level would push price into a low-volume “expansion” range, where thinner order-book liquidity could allow for a swift move toward the $47–$48 region.

Beyond that, the VPVR Point of Control (POC) is positioned at $50, a key psychological and structural level that may serve as the next major upside magnet. If the accumulation thesis holds, IBIT could transition from its base-building phase into expansion, eventually reaching the $50 zone where distribution pressure may emerge. Overall, the technical structure suggests that the iShares Bitcoin Trust may be nearing the end of its consolidation phase, with conditions aligning for a potential upside continuation.

Looking Ahead: Navigating BTC Price Scenarios

Bitcoin sits at a pivotal juncture. Potential bullish scenarios include:

• A V-shaped recovery was activated near $69,000
• Sustained breakout above $71,000 toward $74,000 resistance

Conversely, downside scenarios remain:

• Failure to maintain support at $66,200 could accelerate downward momentum
• Historical death cross patterns suggest a possible retracement toward $30,000

Bitcoin was trading at around $68,038.69, up 2.99% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

Traders should rely on confirmed technical signals, monitor critical levels, and consider macroeconomic conditions when assessing Bitcoin price forecasts.