Massive $9 Billion Crypto Options Expiry Today: How WIll BTC and ETH React?

Around 115,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 27, with a notional value of roughly $7.8 billion. This event is much larger than usual because it is the end of the month, so there could be a little volatility on spot markets.

Crypto markets have seen a little daylight with a mid-week lift, but total capitalization has remained the same as gains are starting to erode again, and zooming out shows they’re still in a downtrend.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.76, meaning that there are more expiring calls (longs) than puts (shorts). Max pain is around $75,000, according to Coinglass, which is way above current spot prices, so many will be out of the money on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at $60,000 with $1.5 billion and $1.1 billion at $50,000 strike prices on Deribit as bearish bets increase. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing this month and has reached $37 billion.

Derivatives provider Greeks Live said the expiration of options accounts for 20% of total open interest, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin’s position share reaching a multi-year peak.

In addition to today’s oversized batch of Bitcoin options, around 477,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $963 million, max pain at $2,200, and a put/call ratio of 0.77. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $6.6 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $9 billion.

Spot Market Outlook

Markets are back in the red again today with total cap dropping 1.3% below $2.4 trillion. Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,000 and dipped back below $67,000 during early trading in Asia on Friday morning.

Ethereum is teetering around the $2,000 level and is likely to fall below it again as any hopes of a relief rally dwindle.

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