CoreWeave Shares Plunge on Disappointing Q1 Revenue Forecast Despite Strong Q4 Performance

TLDR

• Shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) declined 8-9% in extended trading after releasing Q4 2025 results
• Fourth quarter revenue reached $1.57B (up 110% YoY) and topped forecasts, though losses per share of $0.89 exceeded the $0.49 consensus
• First quarter 2026 revenue outlook of $1.9B-$2.0B fell short of the $2.29B Street estimate
• Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $12B-$13B aligned with expectations; capital spending planned at $30B-$35B
• Contracted revenue backlog expanded to $66.8B; total debt obligations approximate $30B

Shares of CoreWeave tumbled 8-9% during after-hours trading Thursday following the release of fourth-quarter earnings that presented a mixed picture, with investor attention quickly shifting to forward-looking guidance rather than recent performance.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

The cloud infrastructure company specializing in AI workloads delivered Q4 revenue of $1.57 billion, surpassing the Street’s $1.55 billion projection. Revenue climbed 110% compared to the same period last year.

That represents the positive takeaway.

However, the per-share loss of $0.89 significantly exceeded analyst predictions of a $0.49 loss. This wider-than-anticipated deficit surprised market participants.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $898 million, falling short of the $929 million StreetAccount consensus figure.

Yet the primary catalyst for the stock decline centered on forward guidance.

CoreWeave issued Q1 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion. Analysts had anticipated $2.29 billion. The shortfall at the midpoint approaches $290 million—a substantial miss.

Full-Year Outlook and Spending Plans

For fiscal 2026, CoreWeave forecasted revenue between $12 billion and $13 billion, generally matching the $12.09 billion analyst consensus.

The capital spending trajectory, however, demands attention. The firm anticipates capital expenditures of $30 billion to $35 billion in 2026, representing a sharp increase from $10.31 billion in 2025. This signals aggressive infrastructure expansion.

CoreWeave closed 2025 with 850 megawatts of operational power capacity and 3.1 gigawatts secured under contract. The company aims to exceed 1.7 gigawatts of active capacity by year-end 2026, surpassing analyst forecasts of 1.59 gigawatts.

The contracted revenue backlog expanded to $66.8 billion from $55.6 billion at Q3’s conclusion. Average contract duration lengthened to five years, compared to four years at the end of 2024.

CoreWeave carried $21.37 billion in debt as of December 31. Including lease commitments, aggregate borrowings approach $30 billion—with interest expenses pressuring profitability.

Supply and Demand Still Tight

Nvidia GPU availability continues facing constraints, Intrator acknowledged during the earnings call. H100 pricing during Q4 remained within 10% of year-start levels. Interestingly, legacy A100 chips saw price appreciation throughout 2025.

Intrator indicated demand diversification beyond hyperscale cloud providers and foundation model developers, now encompassing enterprise clients and sovereign entities.

Throughout the quarter, CoreWeave unveiled a partnership with AI developer Poolside, introduced an object storage offering, and expanded its credit facility to $2.5 billion from $1.5 billion.

Notwithstanding the after-hours decline, CRWV shares remained up 36% year-to-date through Thursday’s market close.

Analyst sentiment currently reflects a Moderate Buy rating, comprising nine Buy recommendations and eight Hold ratings. The consensus price target stands at $118.57.

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