Polymarket Bets Hint at Insider Edge in Axiom Probe

TLDR

• Polymarket hosted a prediction market on which company ZachXBT would name in his investigation.
• Traders placed large bets on Axiom before the report became public.
• On-chain analysts identified several wallets that earned over one million dollars in combined profit.
• The largest holder accumulated hundreds of thousands of shares before the outcome was confirmed.
• ZachXBT said he contacted Axiom for comment before publishing the investigation.

Polymarket recorded heavy betting on Axiom before a public investigation named the company. On-chain analysts traced concentrated wagers that produced large profits. The trading activity raised questions about insider knowledge tied to the report’s release.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT published findings on Thursday that identified Axiom as the company in question. However, Polymarket had already hosted a contract asking users to predict the target. The market drew about $40 million in trading volume since Monday, and it shifted sharply before publication.

Polymarket Market Swings Before Public Reveal

Polymarket listed a contract that asked which company ZachXBT would name in his investigation. Traders pushed Meteora to more than 50% odds for most of the week. However, Axiom’s odds climbed late Wednesday and peaked at 46.2% before the report went live.

Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that placed large bets on Axiom before the reveal. Those wallets secured over $1 million in combined profit after the publication. Polysights also flagged five wallets that wagered about $50,000 and earned $266,000.

CoinDesk reviewed on-chain data and identified predictorxyz as the largest Yes holder. The account accumulated 477,415 shares at an average price of $0.14. The position now reflects about $411,000 in profit, which equals roughly a sevenfold return.

Another anonymous wallet purchased 109,450 shares at $0.33 before the outcome became public. A small group of wallets dominated the Axiom side of the book. The concentration occurred while Meteora still led the market for several days.

Axiom Employees Knew of Report Before Publication

ZachXBT stated on social media that he contacted Axiom for comment before publishing. He said he conducted several interviews with company representatives. He added that a leak was “probably inevitable” before the report’s release.

That outreach meant multiple people at Axiom knew about the pending publication. Any informed individual could have placed bets or shared details with others. The trades occurred before ZachXBT published his findings on Thursday morning.

Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the findings in the report. The company said it would continue to investigate the matter internally. It did not answer questions about whether employees traded on the Polymarket contract.

Polymarket operates offshore and does not require identity verification for users. This structure complicates efforts to link specific wallets to individuals. As a result, attribution remains unclear without exchange cooperation.

The contract was resolved after ZachXBT named Axiom in his published report. The Yes shares on Axiom paid out to holders after confirmation. The outcome matched the concentrated positions that accumulated before the public disclosure.

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