Dogecoin may be approaching a turning point. After five consecutive months of price decline, analysts at Swissblock are pointing to a convergence of technical signals that could push the meme coin higher in the near term. The largest meme coin by market capitalization, currently valued at over $16 billion, is drawing renewed attention from both retail and institutional observers.
Swissblock’s institutional altcoin research division, Altcoin Vector, has flagged a notable shift in DOGE’s Impulse index, a proprietary momentum indicator developed by the firm. According to the analysis, a strong surge in this metric could trigger a sustained price recovery. While the signal alone does not guarantee upside, it represents a meaningful development in a market that has largely punished DOGE over recent months.
Bitcoin’s Movement Adds Fuel to the Outlook
One of the more compelling elements of Swissblock’s analysis is the increasingly tight correlation between DOGE and Bitcoin. Data from DefiLlama shows correlation coefficients of 0.79 over the past year, 0.83 over the past month, and 0.88 over the past seven days. The trend is clear: DOGE and BTC are moving in closer lockstep as time shortens.
This matters because Bitcoin has shown recent signs of recovery. In the final week of February, BTC climbed from $62,700 to $67,700, accompanied by a return of dip-buying behavior among investors. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,148, down 1.84% in the last 24 hours. Historically, when Bitcoin stabilizes and attracts renewed capital, DOGE has followed. If that pattern holds, BTC’s latest rebound could provide the momentum DOGE needs to reverse its extended downtrend.
Traders are also watching a short-term breakout pattern forming on DOGE’s price chart. Should the breakout confirm, the coin could quickly retest key resistance levels and validate the bullish technical case.
Elliott Wave Theory Points to a “Last Dance” Scenario
Henrik Zeberg, Head of Macroeconomics at Swissblock, has gone further than short-term signals. Applying Elliott Wave theory to DOGE’s price history, Zeberg argues the asset is currently in Wave 4, a corrective phase, and is preparing to transition into Wave 5, the final rally of a major market cycle.
His historical comparisons are striking. Wave 1 produced a gain of approximately 22x. Wave 3 delivered 65x. If the current cycle follows a similar structure, Wave 5 could deliver returns of 25x to 53x from its base. Zeberg has described this potential scenario as a “last dance”, a significant but final surge before a major cycle concludes.
It is important to note that Elliott Wave theory is interpretive in nature. Analysts can and do disagree on wave counts. The projections presented by Zeberg represent a bullish scenario, not a guaranteed outcome.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin trades at around $0.09410, down 4.53% in the last 24 hours.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/15004/doge-price-poised-for-last-dance-rally-after-five-months-of-decline
