Data shows that holding Bitcoin for at least three years is necessary to avoid losses.
PANews reported on February 28th that, according to Cointelegraph, an analysis by Bitwise reviewed Bitcoin's price history from July 17, 2010 to February 11, 2026, concluding that holding Bitcoin for at least three years reduces the probability of loss to only 0.70%. Holding for more than three years further decreases the risk of loss: 0.2% for five years and 0% for ten years. Traders holding for less than three years face a higher risk of loss; for example, day traders have a 47.1% probability of losing money.
Despite Bitcoin's decline of approximately 50% from its October 2025 high, currently trading at around $65,000, it remains well above its 3- to 5-year realized price of $34,780. This means that investors who bought and held during that period still hold approximately 90% of their investment. Meanwhile, most traders who bought in the past two years are currently at a loss. Those holding for 6 to 12 months have a cost basis of approximately $101,250, representing a paper loss of about 35%; those holding for 1 to 2 years have a cost basis of approximately $78,150, representing a paper loss of about 15%.
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