XRP Price Dips on US-Iran Conflict, But Capitulation Signals March Rebound

XRP price declined after President Donald Trump confirmed major US combat operations against Iran. The announcement followed reports of US and Israeli missile strikes. Rising geopolitical tension triggered a broad sell-off across digital assets. 

Source: TradingView; XRP Price Daily Chart

XRP Price Holds Support as Capitulation Hints Rebound

On-chain analysis indicates that the resistance in the $1.76 and $1.80 range is minimal. A total of around 1.85 billion XRP was accumulated in this range. This amount totals almost $2.83 billion. However, the current price remains above the $1.27 support level.

If the $1.27 support fails, the uptrend assumption will be incorrect. The XRP price could drop to $1.11 if it breaks through the support level for a bear market. The sideways action could continue in the coming days amid current global uncertainty. March could be a risk and opportunity for XRP.

However, in an X post, analyst Chart Nerd highlighted that the price of XRP remains above a multi-year ascending trendline. This trendline has been a support level for XRP since 2018. According to historical analysis, two curve retests took place before entering a strong breakout phase.

XRP could be entering a support phase before entering a new breakout phase. The analysis of past curve expansions suggests that the full cycle breakout could be around $27.6. CoinGape had reported earlier this week that XRP was entering phase 4 of a long-term cycle, with the $21.5 level in focus.

The current Net Unrealized Profit and Loss chart for XRP indicates that the cryptocurrency is in a capitulation phase. The current holders of XRP are experiencing unrealized losses. This phase usually occurs in the last stage of a downtrend.

Historically, the capitulation phase for XRP took almost a month. The current capitulation phase for XRP started at the beginning of February. This phase could end in the first week of March.

Source: Glassnode

XRP Selling Pressure as Seasonality Signals Shift

The total crypto market capitalization fell 0.72% to $2.24 trillion. As reported by CoinGape, the crypto market crashes after news emerges of US and Israeli missile strikes in Iran. The development triggered global uncertainty and led to an immediate sell-off across the market.

However, the Spent Output Profit Ratio verifies that most coins are being sold at a loss. This metric rose above the 1 level for a brief period in mid-February, indicating that coins were being sold at a profit. However, it has since decreased below the 1 level, indicating that the selling continues at a loss.

The SOPR near the level of 1 is important because, if it increases, it will indicate that coins are being sold at a profit, marking a point in the XRP price recovery process. This has always been the case in the past, marking the beginning of the recovery process.

Source: Glassnode

Seasonality data indicates that March has, over the past 12 years, offered an average return of 18% for the XRP price. It is the best month in the first quarter, but the escalating tensions between the US and Israel could impact the market.