XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar: Will the SEC Give the Green Light?

TLDR

• Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, believes XRP ETF approval is nearly certain this year.
• Polymarket shows an 87% chance of XRP ETF approval, marking a significant rise in market confidence.
• Geraci expects demand for XRP ETFs to surpass expectations, similar to the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
• Multiple issuers, including Bitwise and Grayscale, have updated their XRP ETF applications to address SEC concerns.
• The SEC has postponed its decision on XRP ETFs several times, but must decide by October 2025.

Market veteran Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, suggests that the approval of an XRP ETF is almost certain. According to Geraci, market data points to an 87% chance of approval this year. This aligns with insights from Polymarket, a platform where users bet on real-world events.

XRP ETF Approval Odds Show Strong Confidence

Polymarket has reported that users have given an 87% probability to the approval of an XRP ETF. This is a significant increase from last year, when the approval odds stood much lower. Geraci, however, believes the probability of approval is closer to 100%, suggesting near certainty.

Geraci also emphasized that market participants may be underestimating the demand for XRP ETFs.

These products attracted billions in inflows after their launch. Geraci expects a similar response for XRP ETFs.

Firms Update XRP ETF Applications for Approval

Several firms, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin, have updated their XRP ETF applications. These changes aim to meet the SEC’s requests for proper creation and redemption processes. This comes after the SEC postponed its decision on XRP ETFs multiple times.

Geraci noted that these changes are crucial in paving the way for approval. He expects the SEC to make a final decision by October 2025. Market watchers remain focused on whether the commission will approve one or more of these XRP ETFs.

The race for XRP ETFs is intensifying as more firms submit their applications. Geraci’s analysis shows growing confidence in the approval process, with the market preparing for strong demand. If history repeats itself, the XRP ETF could become another successful investment product, following the path of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

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