Arthur Hayes: Iran War Loosens the Fed, BTC Rises

Arthur Hayes’ US-Iran Conflict and Fed Prediction

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes states that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might ease its hawkish monetary policy to finance the conflict with Iran, predicting that this will boost crypto markets. In his blog post, Hayes reminds that since 1985, every US president has prompted the Fed to cut interest rates and increase the money supply whenever they initiated military operations in the Middle East. He cites examples such as the Gulf War (1990), the war on terror after 9/11 (2001), and the surge in Afghanistan (2009).

Fed funds rate increased during times of conflict. Source: Maelstrom

Historical Examples: Fed Money Expansion During War Periods

Hayes argues that this pattern will repeat. Over the weekend, in airstrikes by Israel and the US on Iran, Iranian leader Ali Khamenei was killed; President Trump announced that the attacks will continue. Hayes suggests a wait-and-see approach because the cost and duration of rebuilding Iran under Trump are uncertain, and if the Fed cuts rates and prints money, he recommends buying quality altcoins based on BTC detailed analysis.

Market Reaction After US-Iran Crisis and BTC Rise

Crypto social media ‘World War III’ mentions increased but stayed below the June 2025 peak. US stock futures dipped slightly, oil prices lost half of the opening gain. Breaking news: After the US-Iran crisis, Bitcoin rose 0.7% in the first 5 minutes of the US Futures Market opening. This is an early sign supporting Hayes’ theory.

Crypto social media mentions of WWIII spiked. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

Current BTC price $66,459.84, 24h change -0.89%. RSI 42.06 (neutral-down), downtrend, Supertrend bearish, EMA 20: $68,263.

• Supports: S1 $64,358 (72/100 ⭐ STRONG, -3.58%), S2 $66,529 (71/100 ⭐ STRONG, -0.33%)
• Resistances: R1 $68,193 (74/100 ⭐ STRONG, +2.17%), R2 $74,616 (70/100 ⭐ STRONG, +11.79%)

In the event of Fed easing, a BTC futures rally could be triggered. Hayes has shared other theories in recent months about the Fed engaging in monetary expansion.