Gold Surges Past $5,400 as Iran Conflict Triggers Safe-Haven Rally

TLDR

• Military action by the US and Israel against Iran over the weekend resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
• Precious metals rallied sharply with gold climbing more than 2% to surpass $5,400 per ounce, reaching levels not seen since late January
• Crude oil posted its largest single-day gain in four years amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz
• Other precious metals including silver, platinum, and palladium advanced as market participants sought refuge in safe-haven instruments
• Market watchers are now eyeing $5,595 and $6,000 as critical resistance levels for gold prices

Precious metals experienced a dramatic rally on Monday following coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran during the weekend. The operation resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The spot price for gold advanced 2.4% to reach $5,406 per ounce during early Asian market hours. This movement builds upon the previous week’s gains of over 3%.

US Gold Futures advanced 2.8% to settle at $5,391.46. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has appreciated approximately 25%.

Tehran launched retaliatory missile attacks targeting Israel and American military installations across Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. President Donald Trump declared that military operations against Iran would persist until achieving his stated goals.

Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, announced via social media that Tehran has no intention of entering negotiations with Washington. This declaration suggests the confrontation may be prolonged.

Financial markets responded swiftly to the escalating situation. Capital flowed away from equities toward defensive assets such as gold and other commodities.

Oil prices experienced their steepest climb in four years as trading commenced Monday. Market participants expressed concern over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for international petroleum transportation.

Saudi Aramco suspended activities at one of its refining facilities following a drone attack in the vicinity, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. This development intensified upward pressure on crude prices.

Gold Hits $5,400 as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Silver prices increased 2.4% to $96.04 per ounce. Platinum appreciated 1.7% while palladium jumped 3.1%.

Copper futures registered modest gains, with London Metal Exchange contracts advancing 0.3%.

The US dollar strengthened simultaneously, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advancing as much as 0.7%. While typically a firmer greenback weighs on commodity valuations, both gold and oil defied this pattern.

Analysts Target $5,595 and $6,000 for Gold

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, identified $5,400 as the initial resistance level to monitor, with the late-January peak of $5,595 per ounce representing the next target.

Brown indicated that the weekend’s developments bolster the bullish outlook for gold. He anticipates a possible advance toward $6,000 before 2026 concludes.

ING analysts emphasized that any interruption to energy distribution networks would propel gold prices higher through elevated oil costs and inflation projections.

Gold’s performance this year has been underpinned by central bank acquisitions, portfolio reallocation away from sovereign debt instruments, and speculation regarding Federal Reserve rate reductions. February represented the metal’s seventh consecutive monthly advance — the longest winning streak since 1973.

Spot gold was trading at $5,406.27 as of Monday afternoon in Singapore.

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