Arthur Hayes Says US-Iran Tensions Could Lead to Fed Easing, Boost BTC

• Arthur Hayes says past U.S. wars were followed by Fed rate cuts that boosted liquidity and crypto markets.
• Hayes says the present Iran war could lead to Fed rate cuts and a Bitcoin rally, but advises investors to wait for confirmation.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said that the present U.S.-Iran conflict could trigger a fresh bullish leg for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Hayes argues that U.S. military engagement has historically resulted in Federal Reserve rate cuts and that the current tensions may follow a similar cycle.

According to Hayes Blog,  titled “iOS Warfare,” published on March 2, Hayes gave a historical analysis that the Fed has continuously decreased interest rates in the wake of missile strikes or full-scale wars against Middle Eastern nations by every US president since 1985.

Hayes spoke about the Gulf War as a reference, in which the U.S.led  military intervention followed after Iraq invaded Kuwait, as the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates in late 1990, in response to the conflict and the ensuing U.S. recession, and this easing continued into 1991. According to Hayes, the economic slowdown and the war threat forced the officials to inject liquidity to calm markets.

The aftermath of the September 11 attacks, which resulted in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and then Iraq, is the next argument Hayes makes. The Fed quickly lowered rates throughout 2001 in reaction to market fear and economic recession that resulted in a decline in borrowing costs.

Hayes Urges Patience Amid Rising Iran Tensions

With that, Hayes referred to the current actions from President Trump about Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei, suggesting that another cycle of escalation may be unfolding. His focus, however, is not political endorsement or conspiracy; it’s financial impact.

Hayes mentioned, “The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism.”

In the last, “We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking. The prudent action is to wait and see,” said Arthur Hayes. With positive prediction, Hayes suggests that investors should wait for a rate decrease before purchasing Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Update

At the time of writing,Bitcoin dropped 1.10% in the last 24 hours, trading at $66,291, down almost 30% from the previous year and about 47% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. The entire crypto market has gone down by almost 1%, with the fear and greed index hovering in the extreme fear zone. 

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