Four days turned into four weeks: the flames of war in Iran are burning our wallets.

Author: Ba Jiuling , Wu Xiaobo Channel

Nearly 48 hours after the start of the US-Israel war against Iran, an oil tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit and sank, and the worst fears came true.

On Saturday, the fifth day after the Spring Festival holiday, the US and Israel launched another military attack on Iran. Although this was expected, it still had a huge impact on both the public and the market.

A briefing released Sunday by the U.S. Central Command stated that U.S. forces attacked more than 1,000 targets in Iran over the weekend, and according to an earlier BBC report, about 40 Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, were killed.

Previously, Trump declared that the United States' goal was to protect the American people and achieve regime change in Iran by eliminating the imminent threat posed by the Iranian regime.

However, the situation is still deteriorating.

For the global economy, the first consequence is the complete severing of a vital "energy lifeline"—at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on March 1, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and expressed its tough stance by attacking passing ships.

Following the announcement and the sinking of the oil tanker, at least three liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers traveling to and from Qatar have suspended their voyages to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, bringing global seaborne oil transport (one-third) and LNG transport (one-fifth) to a standstill.

Oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz were hit.

Image source: CCTV News

Secondly, the duration of the war has increased from four days to four weeks.

Previously, Israeli government officials stated that Israel was preparing for a "first phase of intensive and powerful joint strikes over four days." Now, the Israeli Prime Minister has announced that the intensity of the strikes against Iran will be further increased in the coming days.

At dawn on March 2, Beijing time, US President Trump stated: Iran is a very large country, and we expect military action against Iran to last for four weeks.

This means that the impact on global assets will be prolonged, making the situation even more unpredictable.

For those of you watching on your phones, while keeping track of the situation, what you're most concerned about is how your wallet will weather the uncertainties of the coming week or even month.

Today's article will discuss this from four aspects.

International oil prices: Will they rise to $100?

Geographically, the Strait of Hormuz is only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, making it a typical "funnel-shaped" choke point. The natural conditions of the waterway make it easy to defend and difficult to attack, and it is extremely easy to blockade and control.

Beyond the strait lies the Persian Gulf, where seven of the world's core oil and gas exporting countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain—are located.

The Strait of Hormuz

After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy market went directly from a state of "supply and demand balance" to an extreme state of "structural shortage," which quickly spread to all parts of the energy industry chain, with Asian countries being particularly severely affected.

Data from energy consultancy Kpler shows that in 2025, more than 14 million barrels of oil per day will pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for one-third of the world's total seaborne crude oil exports. About three-quarters of this oil will be shipped to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. As the world's second-largest economy, China imports half of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Historically, geopolitical conflicts have always been a key driver of soaring oil prices, especially in the Middle East, a powder keg.

During the 1973 Middle East War, oil prices surged by over 300%; during the 1990 Gulf War, oil prices rose by 199% within two months; and in 2019, after attacks on Saudi oil facilities, Brent crude oil prices jumped by 20% in a single day. In June 2025, when Israel attacked Iranian targets, Brent crude oil prices rose by over 12% that day, and domestic oil and gas futures prices also surged.

Various institutions and analysts have previously made predictions about how this battle will affect oil price trends.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that if Iran does indeed shut down this crucial shipping route, oil prices could surge to over $100 per barrel.

Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler Ltd., estimated in June last year that even if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz for just one day, oil prices could surge to $120 to $150 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict that in the most extreme "doomsday scenario," if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for 2-4 weeks, international oil prices will rise to $150-$200, triggering a global energy crisis and stagflation or even recession in major economies.

On March 1, in Sri Lanka, people lined up to refuel at a gas station.

In reality, it seems we are only one step away from the analysts' predictions.

On the morning of March 2, just after the market opened, international oil prices surged by $8, with Brent crude reaching a high of $82.37 per barrel and WTI crude jumping to $80.82 per barrel.

Early on March 2, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that it had hit three US and British oil tankers with missiles in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will impose a war risk surcharge on cargo traveling to and from the Upper Gulf, the Arabian Gulf, and the Persian Gulf.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also warned that if Iran's oil and gas facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the Middle East will be destroyed in response, a "nuclear threat."

In response to the impending surge in oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on March 1 that its eight major oil-producing countries had decided to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels in April.

Gold: Entering a critical window

Before the outbreak of war, the market anticipated the deterioration of the situation in Iran, most notably the rise in safe-haven assets. On Friday, London gold rose 1.77% to close at $5,276, while London silver also surged 6.15%.

As explosions continue to be heard in Iran, Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters, "Demand for gold is likely to be higher than usual when trading opens on Monday, and gold is expected to once again become the preferred safe-haven asset."

Indeed, this was the case. After the market opened on Monday morning, spot gold rose to $5,374 per ounce, an increase of 1.8%, while spot silver was at $96 per ounce, an increase of 2.6%.

The future price of gold will depend primarily on the intensity of the war and the scope of the conflict.

After referencing similar events in March 2003 and June 2025, Open Source Securities believes that after military action, gold prices may experience a short-term sell-off, with prices rising and then falling. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, gold prices have subsequently shown a significant upward trend.

Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open Source Fund, said: The large-scale military action by the United States against Iran has significantly boosted market risk aversion, which in turn has led to a sharp rise in the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver. If the situation deteriorates further, the price volatility of crude oil, gold and silver, as well as the adjustment pressure on global stock markets, will further increase.

Wang Weimang, investment manager of the asset management department of Zhonghui Futures, believes that the next 24-48 hours are a critical window for determining the height of gold prices. He previously gave two possible directions:

◎ Option 1: If Iran takes limited and precise retaliation, targeting only Israeli or US military bases without blocking shipping lanes, gold will remain in a high-level consolidation phase, repeatedly oscillating between safe-haven demand and market expectations.

◎ Option 2: If the war spreads to Lebanon, the Red Sea and other regions, shipping disruptions will lead to a further contraction in energy supply. Gold will then be driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation, triggering a significant upward trend.

According to his assessment, since Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, gold will become the "ultimate safe haven" for global funds, and its price is expected to hit a new historical high.

Some of Trump's statements have also contributed to the rise in gold prices. He said, "Iran just declared that it would launch an unprecedentedly fierce attack today. They had better not do it, because if Iran does, we will respond with unprecedented force."

A-shares: Short-term impact

Next up is the A-share market, which we're most concerned about. After the market opened over the weekend, some netizens joked, "The US military's missiles precisely hit my account."

Over a weekend filled with anxiety, how will this Middle East conflict affect capital markets?

First, look at the performance of overseas markets according to the timeline.

Saudi Arabia's stock market, which remained open on March 1, plunged 4% in early trading. At the close, the Saudi Arabian TASI index fell 2.18%, hitting a near one-month low. Egypt's main stock index fell 5.44% in early trading, while the Kuwait Stock Exchange announced a trading halt.

Saudi Arabia's stock index (TASI) plunges.

On the morning of March 2, U.S. stock index futures opened lower, with Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures falling by more than 1% and S&P 500 futures falling by more than 0.9%.

At 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 2, the Nikkei 225 index opened down 879.56 points, a drop of 1.49%.

Currently, the performance of external markets is poor.

Fu Yifu, a special researcher at Jiangsu Commercial Bank, believes that the impact of this military operation on A-shares will most likely be characterized by "short-term shock, medium-term differentiation, and limited long-term impact".

In the short term, the core of A-share market volatility lies in the rebalancing of funds following sentiment shocks. Among these, the oil and gas exploration and oilfield services equipment, gold and precious metals, defense and military industry, and coal and coal chemical industry sectors may see upward opportunities.

The medium-term trend depends on the duration and scale of the conflict, which is a key variable determining the degree of divergence in the A-share market. This is similar to the trend of gold.

Jia Yang, a fund manager at Guotai Zhongxing (Beijing) Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd., believes that the current localized geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may cause short-term fluctuations in the overall A-share market, but the impact will be relatively limited. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict will likely lead to a surge in demand for commodities such as non-ferrous metals and oil.

The chief strategist at Zhongtai Securities pointed out that this event will further reinforce the asset allocation logic of "global geopolitical turmoil + expansion of technology and manufacturing" that has prevailed since last year. Sectors such as gold, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, rare earths, and military industries will directly benefit; while the AI ​​technology sector may exhibit a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" pattern.

Cinda Securities believes that the development of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may further strengthen the inflation narrative based on energy security, bringing structural opportunities to sectors such as gold and oil and gas. At the same time, they are optimistic about long-term investment opportunities based on the recovery of PPI.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, believes that the trend of the capital market should still be "driven by our own situation." External geopolitical changes will affect investors' risk aversion and the operation of listed companies, but internal factors are long-term and fundamental, while external factors are short-term and phased.

Overall, institutional opinions suggest that the current situation has a limited impact on my country's capital market, and short-term adjustments may actually present investment opportunities.

It is worth mentioning that the Hong Kong stock market had already taken precautions.

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, financial market volatility has increased and capital flows may accelerate. Local funds may seek a "safe haven" and flow into Hong Kong. The Hong Kong SAR government is prepared to carefully deal with financial risks and has sufficient contingency plans.

AI: A military industry concept?

Unlike previous Middle East wars, this round of conflict may become a hidden boon for the AI ​​industry.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Air Force Central Command has long used Anthropic's AI tools in the Middle East to perform tasks such as intelligence assessment, target identification, and battlefield scenario simulation; even after Trump issued a ban, the tool was still deployed in the current strike against Iraq.

Fueled by the media, the perception that "AI has been deeply integrated into the US military's combat system" gradually took shape over the weekend.

The Trump administration added Anthropic to its blacklist.

According to media reports, the application of AI in modern warfare is mainly reflected in two aspects:

◎ First, intelligence gathering and analysis. For example, the U.S. Central Command can use Claude to quickly process thousands of hours of intercepted Persian communications, internal cables of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and satellite and ground intelligence, accurately identifying loopholes in the Iranian command chain.

◎ Second, practical applications in combat. In this airstrike against Iraq, the US military used the low-cost LUCAS suicide drone, priced at approximately $35,000 per unit, for the first time in actual combat. This drone is highly scalable and equipped with autonomous AI flight control and swarm coordination capabilities.

Image source: Internet

Several institutions have also analyzed this. Tianfeng Securities stated that military AI is one of the important application scenarios of the artificial intelligence industry. AI is expected to play a key role in combat staff assistance, equipment maintenance, situational awareness, and decision support, and may accelerate the evolution of military equipment towards intelligence and unmanned operation, even triggering a new round of military technology revolution. They recommend paying attention to targets in the military AI-related industrial chain.

The research report identified seven investment areas: application products, physical AI, military policy, special computing power, data encryption, data chain, and intelligent equipment.

Conclusion

"Stocks holding crude oil commodities are said to surge due to shipping lane blockades; stocks holding gold and silver are said to surge due to safe-haven status; stocks holding photovoltaic energy storage are said to surge due to energy substitution; stocks holding AI big data models are said to surge due to war brains; stocks holding power equipment are said to surge due to AI infrastructure; stocks holding domestic computing power are said to surge due to national defense and security... It feels like a thousand stocks will hit their daily limit on Monday."

After the outbreak of war, a joke circulated among the people, which, in a humorous way, reflects every investor's stress response to sudden events—both worried about the risks and eager to take a gamble.

However, the answers to questions such as how much international oil prices will rise, how much the stock market will fluctuate, and the probability of an economic recession ultimately depend on the objective course of events. On the other hand, whether it's a black swan or a gray rhino, what truly gives an account "defense capabilities" is still a reasonable asset allocation and risk management mechanism.