Target (TGT) Stock Pops on Q4 Earnings Beat and Return-to-Growth Forecast

TLDR

• Target Q4 adjusted EPS came in at $2.44, beating the $2.16 analyst estimate
• Net sales dipped 1.5% to $30.5 billion; comparable-store sales fell 2.5%
• Target projects 2% net sales growth in fiscal 2026 — its first increase in three years
• Full-year adjusted EPS guidance set at $7.50–$8.50, midpoint of $8 beats the $7.63 estimate
• New CEO Michael Fiddelke held Target’s first investor day, outlining a turnaround strategy

Target Corporation (TGT) stock jumped 5.5% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the retailer posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and issued an upbeat outlook for fiscal 2026.

The Minneapolis-based retailer reported Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $2.44, well above the analyst consensus of $2.16, according to FactSet data.

Net sales for the quarter came in at $30.5 billion, down 1.5% year over year and roughly in line with expectations. Comparable-store sales fell 2.5%, just slightly worse than the projected 2.4% decline.

Target Corporation, TGT

The stock has gained 16% so far this year heading into Tuesday, though it remains roughly 50% below its all-time high from November 2021.

Target has had a rough few years. The company has faced merchandise missteps, understaffed stores, and backlash over its DEI policies — all of which have weighed on both sales and investor confidence.

A Path Back to Growth

The big headline from Tuesday’s results was Target’s guidance. The company projected net sales growth of approximately 2% for fiscal 2026 — its first annual increase after three consecutive years of declines.

Target said it expects sales to grow in every quarter of the year. That projection was in line with, and slightly ahead of, the 1.76% growth analysts had pencilled in.

Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was set at $7.50 to $8.50. The midpoint of $8 tops the analyst estimate of $7.63.

Fiddelke officially took over as CEO on February 1, though his prior role as Chief Operating Officer gave him a running start on the turnaround. Recent moves include C-suite changes, new AI tools, a broader beauty assortment, and new board directors.

Investor Day in Focus

Target held its first investor day under Fiddelke later Tuesday, with the webcast kicking off at 11:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Analysts expected management to address store remodel plans, staffing levels, merchandising goals, e-commerce strategy, and technology investments.

One item on the radar: Target’s partnership with Ulta Beauty, which is due to expire in August 2026. Investors are watching for clarity on what comes next.

Target has pledged around $1 billion in additional spending for 2026, covering new stores, remodels, and digital improvements.

Discretionary categories like apparel and home furnishings account for nearly 30% of annual sales, but have been a drag as consumers pull back spending under uncertain economic conditions.

Fiscal year 2025 sales — the year ended this January — totalled $104.8 billion, down 1.7% from the prior year.

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