Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Institutions Are Buying the Dip – What Traders Are Watching Now

TLDR

• Bitcoin climbed back to ~$68,000 after dropping to $63,000 over the weekend
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.45 billion in net inflows over five trading days
• The recovery was largely driven by short-covering, not fresh bullish conviction
• RSI rose from 36 to 41, and trading volume jumped from $6.6B to $9.6B
• Prediction markets show lower odds of BTC hitting $65K or $60K this month

Bitcoin’s price bounced back toward $70,000 on March 4, trading around $68,000 by midday in Hong Kong.

The move followed a sharp weekend drop that pushed BTC down to around $63,000, triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East.

Market maker Enflux said the recovery was driven mainly by short-covering. Traders who bet on a price drop had to buy back in when a wider conflict didn’t immediately break out.

Geopolitical events tend to move crypto markets faster than traditional ones. Enflux described Bitcoin as a “pressure valve” for capital during moments of uncertainty.

ETF Inflows Provide a Floor

Institutional buying has played a key role in supporting the price. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.45 billion in net inflows over the last five trading days.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in a March 2 interview that many institutional allocators are treating the dip as a buying opportunity. One prospective client committed $11 million after two years of discussions with Bitwise.

Hougan noted that the average Bitwise client takes eight meetings before making an allocation, and many meet only quarterly. He argued the apparent hesitation is often just standard institutional process.

As of Q4, three of the four major wirehouses can now proactively discuss Bitcoin with clients.

On-Chain Data Shows Caution

Glassnode data shows improving conditions but no strong conviction yet.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index rose to 41 from 36 the prior week. It remains below 50, which is the threshold that would signal buyers are in control.

Trading volume increased to $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion, and spot market buying and selling flows have become more balanced.

Derivatives markets still show sellers dominating buyers, and the cost of holding leveraged long positions has dropped.

Prediction market data adds to the cautious picture. The probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in March dropped 11 percentage points to 73%. The odds of hitting $60,000 fell 10 points to 41%.

A separate Polymarket contract tracking whether Bitcoin hits $60,000 before $80,000 slid 12 points to 61%.

At press time, BTC was trading at $66,360.

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