US services inflation stayed elevated in August, complicating expectations for the Federal Reserve as markets look for a September policy adjustment.
The likelihood of a small 25bps cut is now increasing, which is likely to anger President Donald Trump, who has advocated for a mammoth 350bps cut.
The ISM Services Prices Index registered 69.2, only slightly below the prior month’s reading, while new orders strengthened to 56.0 from 50.3. Employment contracted for a second month at 46.5, pointing to softer hiring conditions.
Broader economic data offered a mixed view. Nonfarm productivity in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, while unit labor costs dropped to 1% from 6.9% in the previous quarter.
Weekly jobless claims ticked higher to 237,000, with continuing claims steady near 1.94 million. The trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July as imports climbed to $358.8 billion against exports of $280.5 billion.
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Earlier this week, the Fed’s Beige Book described a stable economy with modest price growth and business uncertainty tied to tariffs and policy outlooks, reinforcing expectations of a measured quarter-point cut in September.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated she does not support a 50 basis point move, backing gradual easing instead. Market odds have priced a near-certain reduction in the policy rate.
Bitcoin traded lower today, moving from $110,000 to $109,300, while the S&P 500 ETF gained 0.3% from 644 to 646. The divergence reflected caution in digital assets and steady demand for equities as rate expectations centered on a modest cut.
Source: https://cryptoslate.com/insights/new-economic-data-rejects-trumps-350bps-rate-cut-dream-as-bitcoin-falls-while-stocks-climb/
