Analysis: Bitcoin and stocks stabilized after falling at the start of the week, but the US Treasury market has yet to react.

PANews reported on March 6th, citing CoinDesk, that while Bitcoin and global stock markets have rebounded from the sell-off triggered earlier this week by the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the US bond market continues to signal caution. Bitcoin traded back above $70,000 on Friday, up nearly 10% for the week, and S&P 500 futures also recovered some ground. The stable market sentiment is attributed to the US's swift commitment to providing naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed for four consecutive days, rising from 3.93% to 4.15%; the interest rate-sensitive 2-year yield jumped from 3.37% to nearly 3.60%. The rise in yields suggests that traders are reassessing the outlook for monetary policy as the conflict could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially pushing up energy prices. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors now see less than a 50% probability of two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, far lower than the nearly 80% before the conflict. Market focus is now shifting to Friday's non-farm payroll report; overly positive data could further weaken expectations of rate cuts.