Bitcoin (BTC) Price: War, Surging Oil Prices, and a Failed Breakout Put $60K Back in Play

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped 3.1% to around $70,182 during Asian trading on Friday
• BTC briefly hit a one-month high of $74,000 on Thursday before reversing
• CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index sits at just 10 out of 100, deep in bear territory
• A failed auction at $74,000 has traders watching $60,000 as the next key support
• US buying interest has picked up, but macro uncertainty continues to weigh on price

Bitcoin pulled back sharply on Friday after briefly touching $74,000 the day before, falling to around $70,182 during Asian trading hours.

The drop of roughly 3.1% came after Bitcoin hit a one-month high on Coinbase Thursday, briefly touching the 50-day exponential moving average before sellers stepped in.

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains on track for a 7% weekly gain.

Geopolitical tension added pressure to markets. US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks, with the conflict entering its seventh day.

The war has raised fears about oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil. Oil prices jumped more than 16% this week.

Higher oil prices have stoked inflation concerns, which in turn has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. That helped the US dollar strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.

Bear Market Signals Remain

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said Thursday that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, despite the short-term rally.

Their Bull Score Index, which combines fundamental and technical metrics, stands at just 10 out of 100. The firm called the recent rally “likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase.”

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said the rally was driven by renewed risk appetite and ETF inflows, but that it “quickly faced headwinds” as macro uncertainty and fading momentum pulled prices back.

Technical Picture Points Lower

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin confirmed what traders call a “failed auction” at the $74,000 resistance level. Price broke above it briefly, then reversed sharply and closed back below.

That level also aligned with the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), creating a double resistance zone that proved too strong.

With the value area high now lost, analysts say a move toward $60,000 — the previous weekly low — is increasingly likely if selling pressure continues.

On the demand side, CryptoQuant noted a positive Coinbase Premium, suggesting renewed buying from US-based investors. Bitcoin spot demand from US investors flipped from contraction to growth.

Selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has also eased after unrealized losses hit levels not seen since July 2022.

Bitwise Asset Management announced a $233,000 donation to Bitcoin open-source developers, its second annual contribution tied to the success of its spot Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin was trading near $70,182 as of early Friday morning.

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