Arthur Hayes: US-Iran War Could Force Fed to Print Money and Boost Bitcoin

TLDR

• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says a prolonged US-Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates and print money.
• Hayes points to past US military campaigns where the Fed injected liquidity into markets.
• Rising oil prices from the conflict could push 10-year Treasury yields higher, triggering a Fed response.
• Bitcoin initially dipped from $66,000 to $63,000 after hostilities escalated before recovering to $73,000.
• Analysts see $70,685 as a key Bitcoin support level, with a short-term target of $75,000–$80,000.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, says the ongoing US-Iran conflict could set off a chain reaction that ends with the Federal Reserve printing money — and Bitcoin moving higher.

In a blog post published Monday, Hayes outlined how extended US military involvement in the Middle East has historically forced the Fed to cut rates and pump liquidity into the economy. He referenced the Gulf War in 1990, the global war on terror after 9/11, and the surge of US forces in Afghanistan in 2009 as examples.

Hayes warned in an X post on March 6 that if Brent crude oil keeps rising due to the US-Iran conflict, 10-year Treasury yields could spike sharply. That kind of volatility would push the MOVE Index — a measure of US bond market volatility — higher. Hayes described this as a “prerequisite” for a Fed money-printing response.

Brent crude has risen nearly 20% since hostilities escalated, driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. However, oil prices pulled back more than 1% on Thursday to around $80 a barrel, after the Trump administration announced steps to keep prices in check, including a 30-day waiver allowing India to continue buying Russian oil.

What This Could Mean for Bitcoin

Hayes argues that Fed rate cuts or balance sheet expansion would bring more liquidity into markets, which has historically been a tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitcoin’s reaction to the conflict so far has been mixed. The price fell from near $66,000 to $63,000 shortly after hostilities escalated. It has since recovered and recently traded at a one-month high of $73,000.

Hayes advises waiting for confirmed signs of Fed action — either rate cuts or balance sheet expansion — before buying Bitcoin or altcoins. He has not called for immediate buying.

The chances of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 17–18 meeting remain very low. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows just a 2.7% probability of a cut at that meeting. Most market participants expect the Fed to hold rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75%.

What Analysts Are Watching

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified $70,685 as a key support level for Bitcoin. Holding that level could open the door to a short-term recovery toward $75,000–$80,000, according to analysts tracking the market.

Rising inflation concerns are also a factor. If inflation stays elevated, the Fed may have less room to cut rates, which could limit any near-term rally in risk assets including Bitcoin.

Hayes has made similar predictions multiple times in recent months. In January, he cited potential US military action in Venezuela as a likely trigger for Fed easing. Last month, he pointed to an AI-led financial crisis as the next catalyst.

In December, Hayes predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 this month, citing reserve management purchases announced by the Fed at the time.

As of now, Bitcoin continues to trade around the $70,000–$73,000 range, with markets watching both Fed signals and developments in the Middle East.

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