Key points:
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Bitcoin sees a modest rebound into the weekly candle close, but traders see key resistance overhead.
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BTC price action risks a much deeper drop if bulls fail to reclaim that resistance zone.
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Fibonacci analysis hints that such a drop may not pass more than 10%.
Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $111,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as analysis saw “promising” recovery signs.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC price “logical” bounce zone near $100,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining around 1% on the day to hit local highs of $111,369.
The pair’s latest dip, which followed US macroeconomic data, saw bulls preserve $110,000 support.
“This is actually promising on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe responded on X.
BTC/USDT one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XMarket participants continued to hold diverging views over short-term BTC price action. Popular trader Cipher X suggested that $112,000 could spark new lows should bulls fail to reclaim it next.
“We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000,” fellow trader Crypto Tony added on the day, adopting a more categorical perspective based on the weekly chart.
Trader TurboBullCapital referenced the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as important levels to watch going forward.
“Lose the $107k area & the downside target becomes the $101k level which also happens to coincide with the MA200,” part of an X post concluded.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50, 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin’s “worst case scenario” coincides with $100,000
As Cointelegraph reported, one theory on longer timeframes involves market makers on exchange order books.
Related: Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target: Analysis
Short sellers and bears, it suggests, could be the victims of manipulation prior to a giant short squeeze event taking the market to new all-time highs. This would echo price action in late 2024.
In the meantime, Fibonacci retracement levels imply a maximum drop of 10%, again based on historical behavior since the end of last year.
“$BTC usually bottoms at 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again,” popular trader ZYN observed.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-taps-111-3k-forecast-10-dip-worst-case-scenario?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
