Study reveals economic crisis may actually boost Trump's appeal with some voters

Over the years, a long list of U.S. presidents were voted out of office thanks, in large part, to widespread frustration over the economy — from Republican Herbert Hoover in 1932 during the Great Depression to Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 to George H.W. Bush in 1992. Bush had stellar approval ratings in early 1991 and appeared to be heading to a landslide reelection victory, but with the U.S. in a recession in 1992, Democratic nominee Bill Clinton won the popular vote by roughly 5.5 percent and defeated Bush 370-168 in the Electoral College.

In 2026, frustration over the economy is playing a major role in President Donald Trump's weak approval ratings in poll after poll. But Salon's Chauncey DeVega, in an article published on March 8, stresses that economic angst can, in some cases, work in favor of authoritarians.

"Millions of Americans are experiencing real financial hardship because of Donald Trump's policies — and it's getting worse," DeVega explains. "The country's economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent, according to numbers released on Friday morning. Only 13 percent of Americans feel financially secure. Later that afternoon, in a sure signal that investors were spooked by the job numbers and the war in Iran, the S&P 500 plummeted by two percent for the week, wiping out all the gains made in 2026…. Meanwhile, Trump continues to brag about the economy, saying there is so much 'winning' that people are begging him to stop and the affordability crisis is a 'hoax' conjured by Democrats to undermine his MAGA Golden Age."

The Salon journalist continues, "Trump's solipsistic alternate reality, though, does not change the facts. His approval ratings are at record lows, and a majority of Americans correctly blame him for the worsening economy. But this is where the story gets more complicated, and much more dangerous."

DeVega notes that according to a new study from Northwestern University's Center for Communication & Public Policy, authoritarians can benefit from economic woes.

"The conventional wisdom holds that presidents and the incumbent party will be punished at the polls because of the economy, particularly in midterm elections," according to DeVega. "On the surface, the GOP's wave of losses in 2025’s off-year elections would seem to fit that pattern and logic. In reality, matters are much more complicated…. Economic insecurity may actually make authoritarians like Trump more compelling to voters…. Some of the (Northwestern) study's key findings, which were published in the journal Perspectives on Politics, are revealing — and timely."

DeVega adds, "Commitments to liberal democratic norms are conditional, not fixed. When people feel financially secure, support for democratic principles increases. When they feel economically disadvantaged, voters are more open to authoritarianism and autocracy, with characteristics including a biased press, weakened checks on executive power and attacks on the rule of law. Perhaps most striking is that for both liberals and conservatives, political ideology mattered less than economic stress and hardship."

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