A tanker carrying crude oil at Qingdao Port in Shandong Province, China, on August 3, 2025. (Photo: Costfoto)
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A fresh oil production hike by OPEC+ has sent yet another clear signal to the international crude market that its focus remains firmly on a higher market share.
At their meeting on Sunday, eight members of OPEC+, a select group of Russia-led oil producers and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, opted to raise their collective production levels for October by another 137,000 barrels per day.
The latest hike marks the return of 1.66 million bpd of OPEC+ barrels. It is part of an attempt by the group to unwind previously agreed cuts between April and November 2023.
Prior to Sunday’s deal, OPEC+ had two declared strands of cuts – a 1.65 million bpd cut by the eight members, and further 2 million bpd cut by the entire group in place until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Last month, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 bpd for September. That’s after a larger-than-expected increase of 548,000 bpd for August and 411,000 bpd in May, June and July, as it continues to push ahead with putting more barrels onto the market.
In a statement issued by OPEC, producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman cited “current healthy market fundamentals” as the reason for the latest hike.
“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million bpd additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” the statement said.
This stated adjustment will be implemented in October. Many in the market were predicting that OPEC+ may wish to see demand data following the conclusion of the U.S. summer driving season before making its next move at its latest meeting.
Surprise OPEC+ Move In The Face Of Uncertainty
However, the group with it sights firmly on gaining market share delivered yet another surprise via another production hike. Nonetheless, it must be noted that the OPEC+ quota increase – to incorporate the additional barrels – has continued to lag effective production increases by its members.
As the International Energy Agency noted: “The group’s decision to start unwinding its next layer of cuts also reflects a tension that has dominated oil markets for months: forecasters are issuing mounting warnings about a looming supply surplus, and yet markets have remained relatively tight over the Northern Hemisphere summer.”
That may all come to a head over the fourth quarter of the year as producers up their game in a bid for a higher market share in the face of lower, or at best uncertain, oil demand.
According to the Energy Information Administration – statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy – in April, the nation’s crude production came in at an all-time high of 13.47 million bpd, breaking a previous record of 13.45 million bpd set in October 2024.
The ranks of non-OPEC producers are also being boosted by higher output from Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. Collectively, non-OPEC production growth is likely to rise by 1.4 million bpd, according to the IEA.
Notwithstanding any additional OPEC+ barrels, such a high level of non-OPEC output growth alone is more than sufficient to account for global demand growth projections for this year that have been put forward by various forecasters.
These range from 0.68 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd, with IEA and OPEC being at the opposite ends of that range.
With additional barrels flowing in from all corners, there are fears the oil market may end up with a surplus of as much as 500,000 bpd, if not more. As it becomes pretty apparent that OPEC+ now wants to take the fight to non-OPEC producers in a bid for market share, oil prices may likely head lower.
Disclaimer: The above commentary is meant to stimulate discussion based on the author’s opinion and analysis offered in a personal capacity. It is not solicitation, recommendation or investment advice to trade oil and natural gas stocks, futures, options or products. Oil and natural gas markets can be highly volatile and opinions in the sector may change instantaneously and without notice.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2025/09/07/fresh-opec-output-hike-marks-return-of-166-million-oil-barrels-a-day/
