Bitcoin Price Analysis: What’s the Most Likely Short-Term Scenario for BTC?

Bitcoin is still stuck in a broader bearish structure, but the latest bounce shows buyers are trying to keep the recent recovery alive above the key $60k area. Even so, the bigger trend remains fragile, with BTC still trading below major resistance levels on the higher timeframes.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which keeps the broader bias tilted to the downside. The price is also still trading inside the descending channel, indicating that the market has not yet confirmed a proper trend reversal.

The main support zone remains around $60k to $61k, which has already produced a reaction earlier in February. On the upside, the first major resistance sits around $75k to $80k. As long as BTC stays below that region, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues to move inside a large flag pattern, suggesting that the recent advance is still a recovery structure. The asset is now hovering around $69,000 after once again failing to sustain a break above the upper boundary of the pattern near the $73,000 area.

Momentum is neutral for now, with RSI recovering from weaker levels but still not showing a decisive breakout. If buyers defend the $64k to $65k area, which coincides with the lower trendline of the flag, another push toward channel resistance remains possible. A breakdown below the lower boundary, however, could send BTC back toward the $60,000 zone, and potentially lower in the coming weeks.

On-Chain Analysis

From an on-chain perspective, the 30-day exponential moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio has surged sharply, which usually signals that large holders have become more active in sending coins to exchanges recently. That tends to be a warning sign, as elevated whale inflows often increase the probability of sell-side pressure.

So while price is trying to stabilize in the short term, the on-chain backdrop remains cautious. In other words, the chart structure may still allow for a recovery bounce, but the rise in whale activity suggests that upside could remain capped unless this metric starts cooling off again.

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