Morning Minute: Bitcoin Rebounds to $69K as Oil Skyrockets, Then Cools

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors rebound overnight as oil drops from $115 to $100; BTC at $69K
• Polymarket and Kalshi reportedly raise at $20B valuations
• Florida aims to sign new stablecoin bill into law
• Circle and Stripe are both investing heavily in stablecoin infrastructure for AI
• Kast raises $80M to expand its stablecoin-powered neobank across borders

🛢 Bitcoin Swings as Iran Conflict Sends Oil Higher

Crypto markets saw renewed volatility over the weekend as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East.

Oil prices surged as the conflict involving Iran threatened supply routes around the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor responsible for roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Oil briefly surged past $115/barrel in Sunday night trading, driving stocks and crypto lower.

Bitcoin went as low as $65.6K before rebounding to $69K this morning as oil has fallen closer to the $100/barrel level.

Even with the rebound, Bitcoin is now trading back in its $60K-$70K range after a failed breakout run last week where Bitcoin ripped to $74K before falling.

And now it appears the price of “digital gold” is at least somewhat dependent on oil…

Key Details

• Oil briefly pushed above $115 as markets priced in potential Hormuz disruption
• Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz
• Crypto markets sold off Sunday night but rebounded into Monday morning

📊 Prediction Markets Are Chasing $20B Valuations

Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are reportedly raising new capital at valuations approaching $20 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The platforms allow users to trade on the probability of real-world events ranging from elections and geopolitics to economic data and financial markets.

Interest in the sector exploded during the 2024 election cycle, when prediction markets saw billions in trading activity and became widely cited indicators of political sentiment.

Investors now appear eager to fund the next stage of growth.

Key Details

• Kalshi reportedly generated $466M in daily trading volume during recent peaks
• Prediction markets saw $4B+ weekly volume during the U.S. election cycle
• Kalshi raised $1B in Dec 2025 at an $11B valuation, and Polymarket’s last raise was $2B at $9B valuation led by ICE

🏛 Florida Close to Stablecoin Bill Passage

The Florida Senate has passed a new bill creating a legal framework for stablecoin payments, becoming one of the first U.S. states to pass comprehensive legislation focused specifically on stablecoins.

The law outlines rules around reserve backing, disclosures, and consumer protections for issuers operating in the state. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will review the bill soon, a representative told Decrypt, and is expected to sign it into law.

While Congress continues debating federal crypto legislation, several states are beginning to move forward with their own frameworks.

Key Details

• Bill establishes reserve backing and transparency requirements for issuers
• Law allows stablecoins to be used for payments and financial settlement within the state
• It comes as Congress continues debating federal market structure legislation including the CLARITY Act

🤖 Stripe and Circle Are Building AI Payment Rails

Two of the biggest fintech companies in the world are racing to build payment systems designed for a future where autonomous AI agents transact using stablecoins.

Circle and Stripe are both investing heavily in infrastructure that allows machines to send payments automatically for things like compute, APIs, and data services.

Traditional payment networks were built for human transactions.

Stablecoins, however, offer instant global settlement and programmable payments, making them well-suited for machine-to-machine commerce.

Key Details

• Circle’s USDC processed $11.9T in transaction volume in 2025
• Stripe processed $1.9T in payment volume last year
• Machine-to-machine payments are expected to become a core component of the AI economy

🕵️ $46M Crypto Theft From U.S. Government Wallets

U.S. authorities have arrested John Daghita, the son of a federal contractor, and charged him with stealing $46M in crypto from wallets controlled by the U.S. Marshals Service, which manages digital assets seized in criminal investigations.

According to prosecutors, the funds were part of the U.S. government’s growing strategic crypto stockpile, which includes Bitcoin and other digital assets confiscated in federal cases.

The suspicious transactions were first identified by on-chain investigator ZachXBT, whose analysis flagged unusual movements from government-controlled wallets.

Authorities allege Daghita gained access to sensitive wallet information through his father, who worked as a contractor involved in supporting the Marshals Service’s crypto custody operations.

Investigators say the stolen funds were then rapidly moved across multiple wallets and exchanges in an attempt to obscure the trail.

Key Details

• Suspect identified as John Daghita, the son of a federal contractor
• Funds stolen from U.S. Marshals–controlled wallets holding seized crypto
• Theft first uncovered through on-chain analysis by ZachXBT
• Prosecutors say the suspect attempted to launder the funds across multiple wallets

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are rebounding as oil cools off; BTC up 2.3% at $69K; ETH +3.6% at $2,017; SOL +3.8% at $85
• DEXE (+18%), TAO (+8%) and CHZ (+5%) led top movers
• Oil is trading at $101 on Hyperliquid after hitting $115+ overnight

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $349M in net outflows on Friday, ending the week with $569M in net inflows
• Strategy’s STRC moved another 1.87M shares on Friday, giving Saylor capital to buy another 1,069 BTC (a new record)

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors are rising; DOGE +3%, SHIB +2.6%, PEPE +2.9%, TRUMP -2.3%, PENGU +6.4%, SPX +0.7%, FARTCOIN -0.2%
• OIL (+50%), SOS (+100%) and Buttcoin (+13%) led on-chain movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.4 ETH, BAYC -2% at 5.7 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 440 HYPE
• XCOPY – Known Origin (+12%) led notable movers
• Pudgy Penguins teased a Pudgy World announcement coming today
• An exploit on Gondi has led to some NFTs being stolen and people are encouraged not to use the platform until resolved