The post Overseas politics provides some dollar support – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Friday’s August jobs data was again on the soft side. It was soft enough to have the market starting to speculate whether the Federal Reserve would restart its easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut – as it did last September. The data triggered a 0.5% sell-off in the dollar, which has now largely been retraced. Limiting that dollar sell-off, we believe, has been political developments overseas. France today sees a confidence vote in the proposed 2026 budget, where the government is expected to fall. And this weekend saw the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, which is adding to fears in the bond market about the prospect of looser fiscal policy emerging, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY may have another run at 98.50 this week “For reference, Japan will now hold an LDP leadership election on 4 October. Here, one point of focus will be whether someone like Sanae Takaichi comes to power on a ticket of fiscal expansion and slower normalisation of monetary policy. Given FX markets now seem to be taking fiscal risks far more seriously, the weekend development has seen USD/JPY gap above 148. What we would say, however, is that USD/JPY was already discounting a lot of political risk and may again stall in the 148.50/149.00 area rather than pushing above 150. That said, politics may now delay the drop towards 145 – which had been our call for the end of September.” “For the dollar itself, this week carries some important inputs, too. Tomorrow sees the preliminary annual benchmark revision to the 2025 nonfarm payrolls report. A number in the -500 to 800k is expected. The Fed’s Christopher Waller implied a number of around -720k in his speech just over a week ago. A big downward revision to NFP could trigger some… The post Overseas politics provides some dollar support – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Friday’s August jobs data was again on the soft side. It was soft enough to have the market starting to speculate whether the Federal Reserve would restart its easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut – as it did last September. The data triggered a 0.5% sell-off in the dollar, which has now largely been retraced. Limiting that dollar sell-off, we believe, has been political developments overseas. France today sees a confidence vote in the proposed 2026 budget, where the government is expected to fall. And this weekend saw the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, which is adding to fears in the bond market about the prospect of looser fiscal policy emerging, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY may have another run at 98.50 this week “For reference, Japan will now hold an LDP leadership election on 4 October. Here, one point of focus will be whether someone like Sanae Takaichi comes to power on a ticket of fiscal expansion and slower normalisation of monetary policy. Given FX markets now seem to be taking fiscal risks far more seriously, the weekend development has seen USD/JPY gap above 148. What we would say, however, is that USD/JPY was already discounting a lot of political risk and may again stall in the 148.50/149.00 area rather than pushing above 150. That said, politics may now delay the drop towards 145 – which had been our call for the end of September.” “For the dollar itself, this week carries some important inputs, too. Tomorrow sees the preliminary annual benchmark revision to the 2025 nonfarm payrolls report. A number in the -500 to 800k is expected. The Fed’s Christopher Waller implied a number of around -720k in his speech just over a week ago. A big downward revision to NFP could trigger some…